基于“反事实”方法的海岛新区经济增长效应研究——以舟山为例  

Research on Economic Growth Effect for Island New Area Based on Counterfactual Methods:Taking Zhoushan as an Example

作　　者：郑奕[1] 刘观园 ZHENG Yi;LIU Guanyuan(College of Information Technology Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201303,China;College of Economics and Management Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学信息学院,上海201306 [2]上海海洋大学经济管理学院,上海201306

出　　处：《海洋开发与管理》2018年第11期92-97,103,共7页Ocean Development and Management

摘　　要：文章基于1995—2016年《中国城市统计年鉴》长三角地区部分地级城市生产总值增长率的面板数据,利用"反事实"分析方法,探究舟山群岛新区的设立对舟山经济增长的效果及是否达到经济发展先导区的预期,量化研究了舟山群岛新区设立对地区经济的影响。研究表明:舟山群岛新区设立表现明显的正效应,使得舟山经济增长有明显提升,且长期作用逐渐显著,舟山群岛新区设立已呈现出经济发展先导区特征。同时,验证了海岛经济新区政策的有效性,可以发现政策性因素对目前沿海地区发展的重要作用,从国家层面看,选择更多的沿海地区实施新区、特区政策,有利于促进区域经济发展。目前国家出台的粤港澳大湾区建设和海南自由贸易试验区建设等战略也是有力佐证。Based on the panel data of GDP growth rate of some prefectur-level cities in the Yangtze River Delta region from 1995 to 2016, the paper effect of the establishment of the Zhoushan used the ＂counter factual＂ analysis method to explore the Archipelago New District on Zhoushan＇s economic growth and whether it has met the expectations of economic developing pilot zone,quantitatively studied the im pact of the establishment of the Zhoushan Archipe search showed that the positive effect of the establis lago New District on the regional economy. The re hment of the Zhoushan Archipelago New District had made the economic growth of Zhoushan significantly improved, and the long term effect had been signif establishment of the Zhoushan Archipelago New District had shown the characteristics of the e conomic development of the pilot area.At the same time,the validity of the Island Economic Zone policy had been verified and the important role of policy factors in the development of the coastal areas could befound.From a New District the selection of more coastal areas to implement the policies of the and the Special Zone was conducive to the promotion of regional economic development.At country＇s introduction of the Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Bay Area construction and Trade Pilot Zone and other strategies had further supported this point.

关 键 词：舟山群岛新区 地区经济增长 反事实方法 区域发展 政策效应 实证研究 

分 类 号：P71[天文地球—海洋科学] F127.9[经济管理—世界经济]