基于前景理论走出网络舆情中的囚徒困境  

Going out of prisoner's dilemma in Internet public opinion based on prospect theory

作　　者：房亚楠[1,2] 陈安[1,3] FANG Ya-nan;CHEN An(a.School of Emergency Management;b.Safety and Emergency Management Research Center,Henan Polytechnic University,Jiaozuo 454003,Chin;2.Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)

机构地区：[1]河南理工大学应急管理学院,河南焦作454003 [2]河南理工大学安全与应急管理研究中心,河南焦作454003 [3]中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京100190

出　　处：《天津商业大学学报》2018年第6期21-26,共6页Journal of Tianjin University of Commerce

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金"特大城市非常规突发事件演化机理及防控机制研究"(9182017);中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院院长青年基金"DIIS智库研究方法论的模型化研究"(Y7X1151Q01);中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院"国家及部门委托的有关第三方评估任务"(Y600781601)

摘　　要：囚徒困境在网络舆情干预实践中普遍存在,结合前景理论的网络舆情分析过程,可为舆情管理者及舆情分析者提供一个基于数据分析的有效途径。基于网民与舆情应对者博弈角度,深入分析双方从各自损益角度出发的策略选择,引入前景理论,构建模糊多指标决策模型,为舆情管理者提供更好的决策方式。基于前景理论的模糊多指标决策模型是一个可有效帮助舆情管理者走出囚徒困境的决策模型,可尽量避免损失,提高收益但模型适用性较窄,且对于不同类型的事件是否存在规律性博弈有待进一步进行实验。Prisoner＇s dilemma generally exists in the practice of Internet public opinion intervention. Combined with the Internet public opinion analysis process of prospect theory,it may provide an effective way for the public opinion manager and analyst based on data analysis. From the perspective of game between netizen and public opinion mana- ger, the article deeply analyzes the tactical choices of two parties based on their respective profit and loss. The introduc- tion of prospect theory and the construction of a fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making model provide a better decision- making approach for public opinion manager. The fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making model based on prospect theory may effectively help public opinion manager go out of the prisoner＇s dilemma, and may avoid losses and improve re- turns to the greatest extent. The applicability of the model is a little narrow, and whether there is a regular game in dif- ferent types of events or not requires further experiment.

关 键 词：网络舆情 囚徒困境 前景理论 模糊决策 

分 类 号：F270[经济管理—企业管理]