随机集方法在燃气负荷预测中的应用  

Application of random set method in the gas load estimation

作　　者：陈虹丽[1] 李强[1] 孟庆文 CHEN Hong-li;LI Qiang;MENG Qing-wen(College of Automation,Harbin Engineering University,Harbin 150001,China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工程大学自动化学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《实验室科学》2018年第5期54-56,共3页Laboratory Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(项目编号:61371172);黑龙江省科学基金项目(项目编号:F2017008);黑龙江省博士后科研启动基金(项目编号:LBH-Q10140)

摘　　要：以燃气负荷(城市燃气日负荷值)预测为目的,提出一个基于随机集方法在燃气负荷预测中的应用。选择某市一月份每日燃气负荷值作为观测数据,燃气负荷是一个随机有限集,选取燃气负荷每一点周围的球形(以均值为中心,马氏距离为半径)作为随机集信度,每日的温度作为自变量,建立一个燃气负荷与温度预测关系的随机集模型,在此基础上,对燃气负荷进行预测并分析预测误差,实验结果表明,该方法能够根据温度数据对燃气负荷做出短期预测。For the purpose of forecasting gas load （city gas daily load value）, an application based on random set method in gas load forecasting is proposed. Choose a city in January the daily gas load value as the observation data, the gas load is a random finite set, selection of spherical gas load each point around （to mean as the center, the Mahalanobis distance as the radius） as a random set of reliability,the daily temperature as the independent variable, random set model of a gas load and temperature prediction and on this basis, the gas load forecasting and prediction error analysis, the experimental results show that the method is： according to the temperature data of gas load to make short-term prediction.

关 键 词：燃气负荷 随机集 预测 

分 类 号：TU996.6[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程]