春运摩托车返乡潮现象形成机理的调查分析  

Investigation and Analysis on Formation Mechanism of the Tidal Phenomenon of the Spring Festival Return by Motorcycle

作　　者：陈富坚 徐培培 冯飞宇 CHEN Fujian;XU Peipei;FENG Feiyu(School of Architecture ＆ Transportation Engineering,Guilin University of Electronic Technology,Guilin 541004,Guangxi,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]桂林电子科技大学建筑与交通工程学院,广西桂林541004

出　　处：《重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第12期118-125,共8页Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71363012);广西研究生教育创新计划项目(YCSW2017150)

摘　　要：针对春运摩托车返乡潮现象,在统计抽样理论指导下,以交通经济学和交通系统分析方法为基础,采用大样本抽样、聚类分析等方法对春运摩托车返乡潮现象的形成机理进行调查分析。结果表明:汽车票贵、火车运力不足、骑摩托车便利是春运摩托车返乡潮现象形成的主要原因。研究成果为指导农民工合理选择返乡方式及给管理部门制定对策提供了科学依据。Aiming at the phenomenon of returning home by motorcycle during the Spring Festival, the formation mechanism of this phenomenon was investigated and analyzed by using large sample sampling and cluster analysis methods under the direction of statistical sampling theory, which was based on traffic economics and transportation systems analysis method. The results show that the expensive bus ticket, lack of rail capacity and convenience of riding motor are major reasons of this phenomenon. The research results provide a scientific basis for guiding the peasant workers to rationally choose the way of returning home and for the administrative departments to formulate countermeasures.

关 键 词：交通运输工程 摩托车返乡潮现象 交通经济学 统计抽样 形成机理 

分 类 号：U491.2[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]