我国地方政府规模是否存在过度扩张?——来自PSTR模型的经验证据  

Is the Size of China's Local Government Over-expanded?Empirical Evidence from PSTR Model

作　　者：王伟强 WANG Wei-qiang(Business School,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学商学院,郑州450001

出　　处：《云南财经大学学报》2018年第11期14-25,共12页Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：研究阐释党的十九大精神国家社会科学基金专项课题"适应新时代社会主要矛盾变迁着眼构建现代化经济体系的深化供给侧结构性改革研究"(18VSJ018);河南省哲学社会科学规划项目"空间经济学视阈下内陆型自由贸易试验区促进区域协调发展的路径研究"(2018CJJ090)

摘　　要：政府支出对产出增长的影响表现为促进效应还是抑制作用,与政府规模的大小存在密切关联。文章基于1995~2015年中国31个地区面板数据,运用面板平滑转换回归(PSTR)模型,以政府规模作为转换变量,对政府支出与产出增长之间关系的门限转换特征进行了实证检验,研究结果发现:随着中国地方政府规模的变化,地方政府支出对其产出增长具有显著的非线性效应。当政府规模达到16. 841%前后,政府支出对产出增长的影响具有显著的非对称性;中国东部和中部地区政府规模大多处于适度区间,政府支出对产出增长仍保持正向影响;政府规模过度扩张的省域主要集中在西部地区,由于政府规模的过度扩张,导致西部地区政府支出对产出增长造成了负向影响。此外,伴随政府规模的扩大,政府消费对产出增长的影响同样具有显著的非线性特征,但政府投资对产出增长始终保持负向作用,并且政府投资对产出增长的不利影响会伴随政府规模的扩大而不断恶化。Whether government expenditure has promotion or inhabitation effect on output growth is closely related to the size of the government. Based on the panel data of 31 regions in China from 1995 to 2015 and by using panel smooth transition regression （PSTR） model and tak- ing government size as conversion variable, the paper makes an empirical test on the threshold transition characteristics of the relationship between government expenditure and output growth. The results shown that with the changes of local government size in China, local government ex- penditure has a significant non -linear effect on output growth. When the size of the government reaches 16.841%, the impact of government expenditure on output growth is significantly asym- metric. The government sizes in eastern and central regions of China are mostly in a moderate range, and government expenditures remain positive impacts on output growth; governments with over- expanded sizes are mainly concentrated in the western region. Due to the over- expansion of government size, government expenditures in the western region have negative impact on output growth. In addition, with the expansion of government size, the impact of government consumption on output growth also has significant nonlinear characteristics, but government investment always maintains a negative effect on output growth, and the adverse impact of government investment on output growth will continue to deteriorate with the expansion of government size.

关 键 词：政府规模 政府支出 经济增长 非线性效应 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]