中国应急产业集聚的增长效应及其影响因素——基于2005—2014年面板数据的空间计量分析  

Growth Effect and Influencing Factors of Spatial Agglomeration in Emergency Industry: Spatial Measurement Analysis Based on 2005-2014 Panel Data

作　　者：张廷海 王点[1] 宋顺锋[2] ZHANG TingHai;WANG Dian;SONG ShunFeng(School of International Economics ＆ Trade,Anhui University of Finance ＆ Economics,Bengbu 233030;Department of Economics,University of Nevada,Reno,NV 89557,USA)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院,安徽蚌埠233030 [2]美国内华达大学雷诺分校经济系,内华达州雷诺89557

出　　处：《财贸研究》2018年第9期42-54,75,共14页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目"财税政策提升战略性新兴产业创新绩效的激励机制与效应比较研究"(16AJY022);安徽省自然科学基金面上项目"城市产业结构与城镇化融合演进机制及其空间匹配性研究"(1708085MG177);安徽省软科学研究计划项目"安徽省应急产业科技支撑体系与创新政策研究"(1607a0202018)

摘　　要：利用2005—2014年中国30个省级政府面板数据,运用空间计量方法,构建邻近矩阵、地理距离矩阵和经济距离矩阵分析中国应急产业空间集聚状况,并在此基础上建立空间面板误差模型(SEM),以考察应急产业空间集聚的增长效应及其影响因素。研究结果表明:中国应急产业空间集聚程度较低,区域内发展不平衡且存在空间自相关性,东部地区产业集中度较高,而中西部地区集中度较低;省际和分地区检验发现,应急产业空间集聚对经济增长的影响并非呈现线性关系,而是"倒U型"关系,且目前处于"倒U型"曲线左侧,即促进经济增长阶段,但促进作用并不明显;资源禀赋、社会性应急需求、政府行为和行业前景等因素对应急产业空间集聚存在促进作用,个人应急需求、区域开放程度和科技支撑能力作用效果不明显;不同地区各种因素的作用方向与效果也存在明显差异性。Based on 30 provincial government data in China,this paper employs spatial measurement methods to construct neighboring matrix,geographical distance matrix and economic distance matrix to measure and test spatial agglomeration of emergency industry,on which spatial panel error model（ SEM） is established to investigate growth effect and its influencing factors of emergency industry agglomeration. The result shows that：（ 1） Spatial concentration of emergency industry is generally low,and the regional development is unbalanced with spatial autocorrelation. The concentration of eastern regions is high,and the concentration in central and western regions is low.（ 2） Inter-provincial and sub-regional tests has found that the impact of emergency industry spatial agglomeration on economic growth is not a linear but an ＂inverted U-shaped＂relationship,and is still on the left side of the ＂inverted U-shaped＂curve to promote economic growth,but promotion effect is not obvious.（ 3） Resource endowment,social emergency demand,government behavior,industry prospects and other factors promote the accumulation of emergency industry,while personal emergency needs,regional openness and support capacity of science and technology is not ideal. Meanwhile,it has obvious different direction and effect of different factors in different regions.

关 键 词：应急产业集聚 增长效应 Moran’s I指数 SEM模型 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]