中国农村家庭能源消费结构:基于Meta方法的研究  

Energy Consumption Structure of Chinese Rural Household:A Meta Approach

作　　者：魏楚[1] 韩晓 WEI Chu;HAN Xiao

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院

出　　处：《中国地质大学学报（社会科学版）》2018年第6期23-35,共13页Journal of China University of Geosciences(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家自科基金项目"居民能源需求管理"(71622014);"城镇化与居民能源需求"(41771564);教育部人文社科基金项目"城镇化对家庭能源消费的影响"(16YJA790049)

摘　　要：农村家庭能源转型事关农村居民的生活水平与生活质量,是能源消费革命的重要组成部分。此前文献研究中对我国能源消费结构存在不同的判断,一种观点认为目前仍以生物质能源为主,另一种观点认为农村家庭能源消费已经过渡到以煤炭为主。为了判断现有的农村能源消费结构,本文基于已有的可得文献,采用Meta分析方法提取了35篇文献中的73组效应值进行定量分析。结果表明:已有文献在研究对象、样本特征、模型方法、解释变量等维度上存在显著的异质性,由此导致了文献之间结论不一致。本文在控制住这些因素后发现,我国农村家庭能源消费结构已经发生根本性转变,家庭收入是驱动能源消费转型的主要因素。伴随着收入的持续增长,劣质能源(生物质能)显著减少,电力等高品质商品能源显著增加,而煤炭、沼气等低品质能源消费量逐步趋于稳定。不同的稳健性检验也支持这一结论。Energy transformation in rural residential sector is strongly associated with residents＇living standards.It is also an important component and indicator of the national energy consumption revolution strategy.However,the existing literature can not reach a consistent conclusion regarding China＇s rural household energy consumption pattern.One view argues that biomass energy is still the dominant fuel,while the opposite view suggests that biomass has been replaced with coal.This paper aims to clarify the energy consumption structure for Chinese rural household on the basis of existing literature.Using the meta-analysis method,73 sets of effect values from 35 literatures are extracted for quantitative analysis.The results show that the rural household energy consumption structure has experienced substantial change.Substantial growth of household income is confirmed as the major factor to drive the transformation of energy consumption pattern.The inferior energy（biomass）experienced notable decline along with the income growth.In contrast,the commercial energy increased,while the marginal effect of lowquality energy（coal and biogas）is not significant.Various robust tests also support this conclusion.

关 键 词：农村家庭 能源消费结构 能源消费转型 META分析方法 

分 类 号：F323.24[经济管理—产业经济]