旅游业发展与经济增长的动态关系研究——以陕西省为例  

A Study of the Dynamic Relationship Between Tourism Development and the Economic Growth Based on Shanxi Province

作　　者：张倩[1] 王立平 王文博[3] ZHANG Qian;WANG Liping;WANG Wenbo(School of Finance and Accounting,Shanxi Institute of International Trade and Commerce,Xi＇an,Shanxi,712046;School of Economics and Management,Xi＇an University of Posts and Telecommunications,Xi＇an,Shanxi,710121;School of Economics and Finance,Xi an Jiaotong University,Xi an Shanxi,710061)

机构地区：[1]陕西国际商贸学院财务会计学院,陕西西安712046 [2]西安邮电大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安710121 [3]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《管理学刊》2018年第5期34-45,共12页Journal of Management

摘　　要：旅游业作为陕西省新兴支柱产业,正成为拉动陕西省经济增长、带动产业转型升级的强劲引擎。利用陕西省2004—2017年相关数据,建立向量误差修正模型,对陕西省旅游业发展与经济增长之间的动态关系进行检验。检验结果表明:国内旅游、国际旅游与经济增长三者之间存在协整关系,旅游业对经济增长的影响存在显著滞后性;通过脉冲响应和方差分解分析发现国内旅游波动主要受到国内旅游自身和经济增长的影响,国际旅游波动受到国际旅游自身、国内旅游和经济增长三方面因素的影响,经济增长对旅游业波动贡献高于旅游业对经济增长波动贡献;根据因果关系检验结果,国际旅游与经济增长之间不存在反馈关系,短期内经济增长是陕西省国内旅游发展的原因,长期来看国内旅游对国际旅游发展和经济增长的促进作用更明显。因此,为发挥旅游业发展对陕西省经济增长的促进作用,一方面应重视国内旅游发展,增强旅游业与相关产业关联度,提升陕西省旅游业竞争力,另一方面应打造旅游品牌国际知名度,拓宽国际旅游市场,增加陕西省国际旅游收入。As an emerging pillar industry in Shanxi Province, tourism is growing to bea strong engine for Shanxi＇seconomic growth and industrial transformation and upgrading. The paper makes a test of the dynamic relationship betweenthe tourism development of Shanxi Province by establish a vector error correction model with the relevant data from 2004to 2017 of Shanxi Province, which shows there is a cointegration relationship among the domestic tourism, internationaltourism and economic growth, while the influence of the tourism exerts on the economic growth is significantly hysteretic.The analysis by impulse response and variance decomposition shows that the domestic tourism fluctuations are mainlyaffected by the domestic tourism itself and the economic growth, while the international tourism fluctuations are affectedby such three factors as international tourism itself, domestic tourism and economic growth. The economic growthcontributes more to the tourism fluctuations than tourism does to the fluctuations of the economic growth. The causalitytest result shows there is no feedback relationship between the international tourism and the economic growth. The short-term economic growth counts for the development of the domestic tourism of Shanxi province, while, in a long term, thedomestic tourism plays a more significant role in promoting the development of the international tourism and the economicgrowth. Therefore, in order to give full play of the role the tourism development plays in promoting the economic growth ofShanxi province, on the one hand, more attention should be paid to developing the domestic tourism development andstrengthening the relevancy between the tourism and its relevant industries to promote the tourism competitiveness ofShanxi province. On the other hand, efforts should be made to create an international reputation for travel brands andexpand the international tourism market to increase the international tourism revenue of the Shanxi province.

关 键 词：旅游业 经济增长 向量误差修正模型 投入产出表 陕西省 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] F592.7