多目标约束下中国煤化工产业区位指数构建与分析  

Construction and analysis of location index of coal chemical industry in China under multi-objectives constraints

作　　者：程婉静 田亚峻 闫勇[3] 李俊杰 杨靖东 徐政 武娟妮[5] 谢克昌[6] CHENG Wanjing;TIAN Yajun;YAN Yong;LI Junjie;YANG Jingdong;XU Zheng;WU Juanni;XIE Kechang(National Institute of Clean and Low-Carbon Energy;Institute of Quantitative ＆ Technical Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute;China University Of Mining and Technology;Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning of the State Environmental Protection Administration;Chinese Academy of Engineering)

机构地区：[1]国家能源集团北京低碳清洁能源研究所 [2]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所 [3]中国石油集团经济技术研究院 [4]中国矿业大学化学与环境工程学院 [5]环境保护部环境规划院 [6]中国工程院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2018年第10期77-85,共9页International Petroleum Economics

基　　金：中国工程院重大咨询项目"碳约束条件下我国能源结构优化研究"(2016-ZD-07)的支持

摘　　要：对中国煤化工产业科学布局设置了政府主导和市场主导两种情景,选取煤炭资源储量、地区自给率、储采比、地表水资源容量、环境容量、人均GDP、CO_2排放强度等指标,采用层次分析法确定指标权重,计算反映中国煤化工产业区位指数,为全面合理布局提供理论依据。结果表明,山西、云南、内蒙古和贵州这四个地区具有布局煤化工产业的优势。在市场主导情景下,云南以其丰富的水资源、安徽以其优越的地理位置凸显煤化工产业发展的区位优势。在充分调研各煤化工项目现有布局和已有规划的基础上,发现现有煤化工规划布局只考虑煤炭资源的单一指标,存在诸多不合理之处。未来中国煤化工产业布局应从有利于资源综合利用出发,根据发展需要打破行政区划限制,在更大的范围进行战略规划布局。The paper sets up two scenarios of Chinese coal chemical industry scientific layout in which are dominated respectively by government and market, selects such index as coal resource reserves, its self-sufficiency rate of coal resources reserves, reserve-production ratio, surface water resource capacity, environmental capacity, per capita GDP and CO2 emissions intensity, uses AHP to calculate the index weight, reflects China＇s coal chemical industry location index calculation, offers theoretic foundation for the comprehensive and reasonable layout. The results show that, four regions like Shanxi, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou have the advantage of developing coal chemical industry. In the market scenario, Yunnan province with its abundant water resources and Anhui province with its excellent geographical location advantages have location advantages of developing coal chemical industry. On the basis of fully investigating the existing layout and planning of various coal chemical products, it is found that there are many unreasonable points if the planning layout of existing coal chemical industry only considers the single index of coal resources. The future layout of China＇s coal chemical industry should attach importance to the comprehensive utilization of resources, break the restriction of administrative division according to development needs, and carry out strategic planning layout from a wider range.

关 键 词：煤化工 科学布局 层次分析法 区位指数 

分 类 号：F426.7[经济管理—产业经济]