张家港水域散装化学品泄漏事故风险及对策研究  

Study of risk and countermeasures for bulk chemical leakage from a ship in the Zhangjiagang area

作　　者：石宁 陈荣昌[2] 王奎升[1] SHI Ning;CHEN RongChang;WANG KuiSheng(College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering,Beijing University of Chemical Technology,Beijing 100029;International Scientific and Technological Cooperation on Waterborne Transport Pollution Prevention and Major Accident Emergency Response China Waterborne Transport Research institute,Beijing 100088,China)

机构地区：[1]北京化工大学机电工程学院,北京100029 [2]交通运输部水运科学研究院水路运输污染防治与重特大事故应急技术示范性国际科技合作基地,北京100088

出　　处：《北京化工大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第6期53-59,共7页Journal of Beijing University of Chemical Technology(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划(2015BAG20B03);交通运输部水运科学研究所支撑性研究项目(WTI61706)

摘　　要：随着张家港辖区危化品数量的增多,预防、应对化学品泄漏事故越来越受到人们的重视。以张家港水域船载丙烯酸乙酯泄漏事故为例,研究了船舶散装化学品泄漏事故风险因素、风险程度及风险后果。采用历史资料统计分析方法研究了该江段营运船舶发生散装化学品泄漏事故的概率,为4. 46×10-3次/年。利用Chemmap数值模拟方法模拟该江段在不同径流量、风向、潮流等环境条件下发生泄漏事故后的污染物迁移轨迹。基于风险识别和评价,以及数值模拟得到的污染迁移轨迹及关注点受污染程度,从降低事故风险概率和减轻事故后果两方面提出了防范和应急措施。As a consequence of the increase in the number of hazardous chemicals in the Zhangjiagang area,prevention and response to chemical spills have received increasing attention. The case of ethyl acrylate leakage on the Zhangjiagang section of the Yangtze River has been taken as an example in order to study the risk factors,risk levels and risk consequences of bulk chemical leakage. The probability of an accident caused by bulk chemical leakage from operating ships has been calculated by statistical analysis of historical data,and found to be 4. 46 × 10-3 times per year. A numerical simulation method was used to illustrate the trajectories of pollutants in the section of the river after a leakage accident under different environmental conditions such as runoff,wind direction,and tidal current. Based on risk identification and assessment,as well as the pollution trajectory results and concerns about the degree of pollution,preventive and emergency measures are proposed in order to reduce accident risk probability and mitigate accident consequences.

关 键 词：风险概率 数值模拟 Chemmap 应急 

分 类 号：U698.7[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]