CEPA：贸易创造还是贸易替代--兼论构建全面开放新格局背景下对深化升级广东自贸区建设的实证启示  

CEPA:Trade Creation Effect or Trade Substitution Effect——An Empirical Study on Upgrading Construction of Guangdong Pilot Free Trade Zone under Background of Building a New Pattern of Overall Opening

作　　者：赵文涛 苏振东 ZHAO Wentao;SU Zhendong

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院、中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心,300071 [2]大连理工大学管理与经济学部,116023

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2018年第11期90-103,共14页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“内外自贸区‘嵌入耦合’推动东北老工业基地全面振兴的内在机理研究”(17BJY081);高校人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“亚太区域合作与‘一带一路’倡议相互促进的路径与策略研究”(17JJDGJW008)

摘　　要：从2004年实施的CEPA(1)到2015年挂牌的广东自贸区,再到当前广东自贸区建设的深化,乃至未来潜在的进一步升级可能(广东自由贸易港)的探索建设,均旨在通过粤港(2)两地间贸易自由化和投资便利化,加快构建广东开放型经济新体制,实现全面开放新格局。由此,本文采用2001—2006年的中国海关数据库和中国工业企业数据库匹配的企业—产品层面的大样本微观数据集,首先,从经典投资的贸易创造效应和贸易替代效应出发,揭示CEPA政策影响下投资的贸易效应作用路径;其次,构建潜在结构变动模型,深入探究CEPA政策实施后粤港间贸易投资的内在互动反馈机制。研究结果发现:总体上,不仅香港对粤直接投资对港对粤自产产品的出口存在显著的贸易创造效应,而且CEPA的实施进一步强化了这一效应;在更为细化的轻纺制造业、资源加工业以及机械电子业三个子产业水平上,这一效应则存在显著差异。在此基础上,本文还探讨了CEPA的上述效应对广东自贸区深化升级建设的启示。From the implemented of CEPA in 2004 to the listing of Guangdong Pilot Free Trade Zone in 2015, to the current deepening of the Free Trade Zone construction and even the potential escalation to a free trade port in future, the aims of these all are to accelerate the development of a new opening up economy and to achieve a new pattern of overall opening in Guangdong with the trade liberalization and investment facilitation be- tween Guangdong and Hong Kong. In this case, this study was based on the large sample of micro-firm-product＇s dataset matched by China＇s customs database and China＇s industrial enterprise database from 2001 to 2006. Firstly, from the classical trade creation effect and trade substitution effect of investment, we revealed the path of investment＇s trade effect un- der the influence of CEPA policy. Secondly, with the aid of Latent Structural Change Mod- el, we explored the internal interactive feedback mechanism of trade and investment be- tween Guangdong and Hong Kong after CEPA policy was implemented. The results show that Hong Kong＇s FDI to Guangdong has a creation effect on Hong Kong＇s self-produced products in general and the implementation of CEPA further strengthened this effect. How- ever, there are some significant differences of this effect among textile manufacturing, re- source processing and electromechanical industry. Base on the result, we analyzed this effect and made some corresponding suggestions to the further upgrading of Guangdong Pilot Free Trade Zone.

关 键 词：CEPA 广东自贸区 贸易创造效应 贸易替代效应 

分 类 号：F752.8[经济管理—国际贸易]