基于贝叶斯网络的梯级水库连溃风险  

Risk of cascade reservoirs collapse based on Bayesian network

作　　者：李平 黄跃飞[1] 李兵 LI Ping;HUANG Yuefei;LI Bing(School of Civil Engineering and Water Resources,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学土木水利学院,北京100084

出　　处：《水科学进展》2018年第5期677-684,共8页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2013CB036402)~~

摘　　要：为研究梯级水库漫坝连溃的风险,并探索贝叶斯网络在水库连溃风险分析中的可行性,通过构建洪水作用下双库连溃的贝叶斯网络模型,并选取四川省大渡河上两相邻梯级水库进行分析,以推求水库漫(溃)坝概率及评估连溃风险。分析过程表明贝叶斯网络方法能直观、简便地分析多风险源共同作用下的水库群连溃风险问题。结果表明,两水库天然洪水漫坝条件概率的数量级均为10-6,洪水引发单库漫坝风险较小;正常蓄水位以上,上游水库溃坝洪水致下游水库漫坝条件概率超0. 8,即上游水库溃坝导致水库连溃的风险很大。This paper evaluated the risk of reservoirs collapse caused by nature-flood-based dam overtopping using a Bayesian network.Probabilities of single and cascade reservoirs collapse were calculated for reservoirs in Sichuan Province.The analysis demonstrates that Bayesian network is intuitive and user-friendly to investigate the risk of reservoirs collapse under multiple risk sources.A same conditional dam overtopping probability magnitude of 10-6 is derived,indicating a low risk of single reservoir dam overtopping.However,the conditional probability of dam overtopping is over 0.8 when the water storage level is higher than normal,meaning there is a high probability of dam overtopping under this condition.

关 键 词：洪水 漫坝概率 水库连溃 土石坝工程 贝叶期网络 蒙特卡罗模拟 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]