改革开放四十年之广州外贸与外资利用研究  

Research on Guangzhou's Foreign Trade and Foreign Capital Utilization during the Forty Years of China's Reform and Opening-up

作　　者：陈川 刘巍[1] 林广维 CHEN Chuan;LIU Wei;LIN Guang-wei

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学中国计量经济史研究中心

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2018年第11期25-41,共17页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：广州市哲学社会科学发展十三五规划2017年度广州商贸中心研究基地课题(2017-JD06)

摘　　要：1978~2017年广州宏观经济态势经历了从供给约束型经济向需求约束型经济的转变,实证分析发现,转变的时点约在1996年左右。1978~1996年总供给能力受制于资本存量的匮乏而难以满足潜在的总需求,外资和外贸共同促进了该阶段广州的资本形成,最终于1997年告别了"短缺经济"时代。1997年至2017年广州的总供给能力不仅可以覆盖总需求,并且在覆盖完以后还有剩余,有效需求是经济增长的引擎。此间,消费需求和出口需求共同决定了消费品企业的投资需求,进而决定了资本品企业的投资意愿,因此出口、FDI和合作经营利用外资在利用外资总额中的占比成为了此阶段广州经济增长的重要影响因素。From 1978 to 2017, the macroeconomic situation of Guangzhou has undergone a transition from a supply-constrained economy to a demand-constrained economy. The empirical analysis reveals that the transition started in around 1996. From 1978 to 1996,the total supply capacity was constrained by the lack of capital stock and it was difficult to fulfill the potential total demand. Foreign capital and foreign trade jointly promoted the formation of capital in Guangzhou at that stage, which eventually put an end to the era of＂shortage economy＂ in 1997. From 1997 to 2017, the total supply capacity of Guangzhou could not only cover the total demand, but also was in surplus after the completion of coverage.The effective demand is the engine of economic growth. During that period, consumer demand and export demand jointly determined the investment demand of consumer goods enterprises and then determined the investment willingness of the capital goods enterprises.To sum up, exports, FDI and the ratio of cooperative operations in total amount of foreign capital utilization became the key factors in economic growth of Guangzhou during that period.

关 键 词：广州经济 供给约束 需求约束 外资 外贸 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]