我国政府卫生支出的最优规模估算——基于面板数据模型的计量分析  

The optimal size estimation of government health expenditure in China——Quantitative analysis based on panel data model

作　　者：傅书勇[1] 孙淑军[2] FU Shu-yong;SUN Shu-jun(School of Business Administration,Shenyang Pharmaceutical University,Shenyang Liaoning 110016,China;Liaoning Technical College,Benxi Liaoning 117004,China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳药科大学工商管理学院,辽宁沈阳110016 [2]辽宁科技学院马克思学院,辽宁本溪117004

出　　处：《卫生软科学》2018年第12期30-35,共6页Soft Science of Health

基　　金：辽宁省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目:辽宁省深化医疗卫生体制改革的路径研究--基于供给侧改革的思考(201610163W05)

摘　　要：[目的]利用面板数据模型实证方法估算我国东部、中部和西部地区的政府卫生支出最优规模,提出三大地区政府卫生支出的相关建议,为这些地区优化政府卫生支出提供依据。[方法]利用我国2004-2015年面板数据,运用永续盘存法估算资本存量,利用面板数据模型进行实证分析,各个模型及其数据均通过了平稳性检验(单位根检验)、Johansen协整检验、面板数据模型判别等相关检验。[结果]我国东、西部地区可以利用固定效用模型,拟优度较高分别为0. 963、0. 966;中部地区可以利用随机效应模型,拟优度偏低,仅为0. 084。东部和中部地区政府卫生支出对其GDP呈现正效应,最优规模为GDP的0. 005、0. 025;西部地区政府卫生支出对其GDP呈现负效应,为-0. 015。[结论]我国东部地区应保持政府卫生支出与GDP的同比例增长,中部地区的政府卫生支出增长率应略高于GDP的增长率,西部地区政府卫生支出增长率应略低于其GDP增长率。Objective It puts forward relevant suggestion of government health expenditure in three regions by using panel data model empirical method to estimate the optimal scale of government health expenditure in eastern,central and western regions of China,so as to provide basis for optimizing government health expenditure in these areas. Methods It used panel data,perpetual inventory method to estimate capital stock,and panel data model was used to conducted empirical analysis. Each model and its data had passed relevant testing in stationarity test（unit root test）,Johansen cointegration test,panel data model discrimination and so on. Results The fixed utility model could be used in the eastern and western regions of China. The high degree of pseudo goodness was 0.963 and 0.966 respectively. The random effects model could be used in the middle area. The pseudo goodness was low and only 0.084. The government health expenditure in eastern and central China had a positive effect on its GDP,the optimal scale was 0.005 and 0.025 of GDP,and the government health expenditure in the western region had a negative effect on its GDP,which was -0.015. Conclusions The growth rate of government health expenditure in the eastern region should keep same increasing with GDP. The growth rate of government health expenditure in the central region should be slightly higher than that of GDP in the eastern part of China. The growth rate of government health expenditure in the western region should be slightly lower than the growth rate of the GDP in the western region.

关 键 词：政府卫生支出 最优规模 面板数据模型 GDP 

分 类 号：R19[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]