灰色马尔可夫预测模型和加权加增长率移动平均法预测精度的比较  

Comparison of Prediction Accuracy Between Gray Markov Forecasting Model and Weighted Plus Growth Rate Moving Average Method

作　　者：刘璞[1] 王萌 马苓[1] 石盛卿 Liu Pu;Wang Meng;Ma Ling;Shi Shengqing(School of Economics and Management,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《统计与决策》2018年第22期11-15,共5页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(13BGL153);国家社会科学基金重点项目(14AJY006)

摘　　要：文章通过建立灰色马尔可夫预测模型和加权加增长率移动平均法,对制度环境进行预测,并对预测结果的精度进行比较。为了进一步验证这一结果的可信性,从全国选择14个省份进行预测,预测结果表明灰色马尔科夫预测结果优于加权加增长率移动平均法。This paper constructs gray Markov prediction model and weighted plus growth rate moving average method to forecast the institutional environment and compare the accuracy of the prediction results.In order to further verify the credibility of this result,the paper selects 14 provinces across the country for the forecast,the result of which shows that the gray Markov prediction is better than the weighted plus growth rate moving average method.

关 键 词：制度环境 灰色马尔可夫预测模型 加权加增长率移动平均法 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]