京津冀三地经济增长溢出效应探析  

Spillover Effects of Economic Growth Among Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

作　　者：郭小卉[1] 康书生[1] Guo Xiaohui;Kang Shusheng(School of Economics,Hebei University,Baoding 071002,China)

机构地区：[1]河北大学经济学院,河北保定071002

出　　处：《经济与管理》2018年第6期4-12,共9页Economy and Management

基　　金：河北省社科基金项目(HB17YJ008);河北大学中西部提升综合实力-高层次创新人才培养和引进计划项目

摘　　要：使用TVP-VAR模型分析2005年第一季度到2017年第三季度京津冀三地之间经济增长溢出效应。结果显示,京津冀三地之间经济增长的溢出效应在样本期间内基本稳定,次贷危机对三地之间的溢出效应几乎没有影响;京津冀协同发展战略在短期内推动三地之间的经济溢出,但近两年来对三地之间经济溢出效应的影响有限;在样本区间内,河北对京津的溢出效应大于京津对河北的经济溢出,天津对北京的经济溢出大于北京对天津的溢出水平,经济增长溢出效应在一定程度上扩大了京津与河北之间的经济差距。This paper uses TVP-VAR model to measure the spillover effects of economic growth among Beijing-Tianjin-Hebeifrom the first quarter of 2015 to the third quarter of 2017. The results show that economic spillovers among Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei have been stable during the sample period,the subprime crisis almost has no influence on the spillover effects amongBeijing-Tianjin-Hebei,the strategy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development promotes the spillover effects in shortterm,but its influence on spillover effects is rather limited in recent two years. During the sample period,the spillover fromHebei to Beijing-Tianjin is larger than that from Beijing-Tianjin to Hebei,the spillover from Tianjin to Beijing is bigger thanthat from Beijing to Tianjin. To some extent,the spillover effects among Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei have enlarged the economicgap of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.

关 键 词：区域经济 溢出效应 京津冀协同发展 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] F120.4