中美贸易战及未来发展趋势分析  

China:Trade Tensions Escalate:Trade between China and US will Face a Bumpy Road to Negotiation,Not a Brewing Trade War

作　　者：鲁雪岩[1] 陈曦 金珊[1] 高浩然 Lu Xueyan, Chen Xi, Jin Shan, Gao Haoran(Changchun Central Sub- branch, the People＇s Bank of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行长春中心支行

出　　处：《金融发展评论》2018年第7期33-51,共19页Financial Development Review

摘　　要：近期摩根大通针对中美贸易战及未来发展趋势进行了广泛研究和分析,本文对报告进行了翻译。本报告涵盖三个方面的内容:一是历史上美国贸易战简要回顾及中美贸易概况。二是美国301贸易调查结果可能对中国经济发展产生的影响。三是中国应对贸易战可能采取的措施。摩根大通分析师认为:美国公布的301调查报告将对中国产生一定影响,贸易冲突是"双输"的局面,中美贸易战未来将以坎坷的谈判为主。Recently, J. P. Morgan conducted extensive research and analysis on US-China trade war and its future development trend. The people＇s bank of China Changchun central sub-branch translated the report. This report covers three aspects ： first, a brief review of the U. S. trade war in history and an overview of US-China trade tariffs. Second, the US 301 trade survey results may have an impact on China＇s economic development. Third, China may take measures to deal with trade war. Analysts at jpmorgan believe that trade between the us and China will enter a bumpy negotiating phase in the future, rather than developing into a ＂real war＂ that has been brewing for a long time. The 301 survey report released by the United States will have an impact on China. The trade conflict is a ＂lose-lose＂ situation.

关 键 词：摩根大通 中美贸易战报告 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易] F757.12[经济管理—产业经济]