广州市气候变化热效应对居民寿命损失年影响的研究  

Investigation on the Heat Effect of Climate Change on Years of Life Lost in Guangzhou

作　　者：刘涛[1] 肖建鹏[1] 曾韦霖[1] 李杏[1] 李志浩[1] 林华亮[1] 杜尧东[2] 许晓君[3] 马文军[1] LIU Tao1;XIAO Jianpeng1;ZENG Weilin1;LI Xing1;LI Zhihao1;LIN Hualiang1;DU Yaodong2;XU Xiaojun3;MA Wenjun1

机构地区：[1]广东省疾病预防控制中心广东省公共卫生研究院 [2]广东省气候中心 [3]广东省疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制所

出　　处：《环境卫生学杂志》2018年第5期393-398,共6页JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HYGIENE

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFA0606200;2018YFA0606202);广东省公共卫生创新平台建设项目;广东省低碳发展专项资金(201616);广州市科技计划项目(201704020194);广东省医学基金项目(A2013073)

摘　　要：目的预估广州市在未来不同气候变化情景下气温上升对居民寿命损失年(YLLs)的影响,并分析居民适应能力上升对该热效应的修饰效应。方法采用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)分析广州市2011—2013年期间日均气温与YLLs之间的暴露反应关系。从广东省气象局获得广州市2030—2039年(21世纪30年代,以下简称2030s),2060—2069年(21世纪60年代,以下简称2060s)和2090—2099年(21世纪90年代,以下简称2090s)期间在RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种气候变化情景下采用区域模式(RegCM4.0)预估的日均温度数据,以20世纪80年代(以下简称1980s)为基线时间段分别计算未来高温引起超额死亡风险(YLLs),并进一步分析未来居民适应能力增加对上述热效应的修饰效应。结果在不考虑未来人口和适应能力变化的条件下,两种情景下的未来气候变化均可大幅增加居民的超额死亡风险,且RCP8.5情境下居民的超额死亡风险更高,在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,2090s期间温度上升引起的年平均YLLs比1980s分别增加了9 285.0和24 549.0。居民的适应能力增加(每十年增加4.6%)可大幅降低未来气候变化引起的热效应,例如在RCP8.5情景下,适应能力可分别使2030s、2060s和2090s期间的热效应降低54%、70%和72%。结论广州市未来气候变化可使居民的超额死亡风险明显增加,且该风险在高排放情境下更加明显,居民的适应能力增加可大幅降低气候变化的影响。Objectives To investigate heat-related years of life lost of Guangzhou residents under different climate change scenarios, and to assess the increase of adaptation in residents to the impact of heat effect. Methods The historical data on climate change in Guangzhou from 2011 to 2013 were collected and a Distributed Lag Non-linear Model（DLNM） was used to estimate the association between daily mean temperature（TM） and daily YLLs. Employing two sets of daily temperature for the 1980s（baseline）, 2030 s, 2060 s and 2090 s derived from a Chinese Regional Climate Model（RegCM4.0） under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios to estimate the baseline and future excess heat-related YLLs attributable to ambient temperature; and to estimating also the excess heat-related YLLs in the future after taking into account the adaptation of people. Results Assuming no change in adaptation and population size, a significant increase in excess heat-related YLLs in the 21st century under both climate change scenarios could be estimated. Compared with the 1980s, the annual excess YLLs in total population for the 2090s under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were 9 285.0 and 24 549.0 respectively. However, improving adaptive capacity of people（increase in 4.6% per decade） could largely offset the future heat-related YLLs, no matter which scenario of climate was changed and how many population was increased. For instance, under a RCP8.5 scenario, increasing the adaptation in people during the 2030s, 2060s and 2090s scenario, heat effect could be offset by 54%, 70% and 72%, respectively. Conclusions Projected changes in climate are likely to lead to an increase of heat-related YLLs in Guangzhou in this century. The risk would be more pronounced in high-emission scenarios. The heat effect could be largely offset by improving the adaptive capacity of people in the future. Enhancing health protection from heat stress would be necessary in China.

关 键 词：气候变化 寿命损失年 适应能力 热效应 

分 类 号：R12[医药卫生—环境卫生学]