宜昌市臭氧对人群死亡急性效应  

Acute Effect of Ozone on Death of Population in Yichang

作　　者：明小燕[1] 李燕[1] 杨勇[1] 余青[1] MING Xiaoyan;LI Yan;YANG Yong;YU Qing

机构地区：[1]宜昌市疾病预防控制中心(三峡大学公共卫生研究中心)

出　　处：《环境卫生学杂志》2018年第5期423-428,共6页JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HYGIENE

摘　　要：目的评估宜昌市大气重点污染物臭氧(O_3)对人群死亡的急性影响。方法收集2014—2016年宜昌市逐日气象、空气污染物和人群死亡资料,并进行描述性分析。采用基于Quasi-Poisson回归的广义线性模型(GLM),控制长期趋势和季节趋势、气象因素、星期几效应、节假日效应进行O_3与逐日人群总死亡率的单污染物模型分析、滞后效应(Lag 1～Lag 7)。计算污染物浓度每升高10μg/m^3,总死亡率增加的ER(excess risk)及95%CI(95%confidence interval)。敏感性分析实施双污染物模型和多污染物模型分析。结果 2014—2016年宜昌市逐日O_3及人群死亡数时间序列分析结果显示,浓度每升高10μg/m^3,O_3(Lag 6)可使人群总死亡率增加0.60%(95%CI:0.01%～1.19%)。结论宜昌市大气污染物O_3对人群死亡效应存在显著性急性影响。Objectives To evaluate the acute effect of ozone（O3）, a major atmospheric pollutant, on death of population in Yichang. Methods Daily meteorological data, air pollutants and the death in population in Yichang in 2014-2016 were collected and analyzed descriptively. Using a generalized linear model（GLM） based on Quasi-Poisson regression, controlling the long-term trend and seasonal trend, meteorological factors and the effect of the day of a week and holiday effects, the relation of the concentration of O3in the air with daily death from respiratory diseases and its lag effect（Lag 1～Lag 7） were analyzed by a single-contaminant model. ER（excess risk） and 95% CI（95% confidence interval） of the total increase of death rate were calculated for every 10 μg/m3 increase of total pollutants. The sensitivity was analyzed by using a double-pollutant model and a multi-pollutant model. Results Time series analysis on the result of daily O3 and the death of population in Yichang in 2014-2016 showed that the increase of every 10 μg/m3 O3（Lag 6） would increase the mortality rate by 0.60%（95% CI： 0.01%～1.19%）. Conclusions The increase of ozone pollution in Yichang would have a significant and acute effect on the death of the population.

关 键 词：臭氧 死亡 急性效应 

分 类 号：R122[医药卫生—环境卫生学]