Climate Transition Risk and Development Finance： A Carbon Risk Assessment of China＇s Overseas Energy Portfolios  

作　　者：Irene Monasterolo Jiani I. Zheng Stefano Battiston 

机构地区：[1]Vienna University of Economics and Business, Austria and Visiting Fellow, Boston University, USA [2]Department of Banking and Finance, University of Zurich, Switzerland [3]Department of Banking and Finance, University of Zilrich, Switzerland

出　　处：《China & World Economy》2018年第6期116-142,共27页中国与世界经济（英文版）

摘　　要：The role of development finance institutions in low-income and emerging countries is fundamental to provide long-term capital for investments in climate mitigation and adaptation. Nevertheless, development finance institutions still lack sound and transparent metrics to assess their projects＇ exposure to climate risks and their impact on global climate action. To attempt to fill this gap, we develop a novel climate stress-test methodology for portfolios of loans to energy infrastructure projects. We apply the methodology to the portfolios of overseas energy projects of two main Chinese policy banks. We estimate their exposure to economic and financial shocks that would result in government inability to introduce timely 2~C-aligned climate policies and from investors＂ inability to adapt their business to the changing climate and policy environment. We find that the negative shocks are mostly concentrated on coal and oil projects and vary across regions from 4.2 to 22 percent of the total loan value. Given the current leverage of Chinese policy banks, these losses could induce severe financial distress, with implications onThe role of development finance institutions in low-income and emerging countries is fundamental to provide long-term capital for investments in climate mitigation and adaptation. Nevertheless, development finance institutions still lack sound and transparent metrics to assess their projects＇ exposure to climate risks and their impact on global climate action. To attempt to fill this gap, we develop a novel climate stress-test methodology for portfolios of loans to energy infrastructure projects. We apply the methodology to the portfolios of overseas energy projects of two main Chinese policy banks. We estimate their exposure to economic and financial shocks that would result in government inability to introduce timely 2~C-aligned climate policies and from investors＂ inability to adapt their business to the changing climate and policy environment. We find that the negative shocks are mostly concentrated on coal and oil projects and vary across regions from 4.2 to 22 percent of the total loan value. Given the current leverage of Chinese policy banks, these losses could induce severe financial distress, with implications on

关 键 词：climate-finance climate policy scenarios climate stress-test climate transition risk climate VaR energy infrastructure loans. 

分 类 号：F832.3[经济管理—金融学] P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]