基于多区域CGE模型的中国农业用水效率和水资源税政策模拟研究  

Water Utilization Efficiency in Agriculture and Policy Simulation of Water Resources Tax in China Based on Multi-regional CGE Model

作　　者：王克强[1,2] 邓光耀[2] 刘红梅[3] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学公共政策与治理研究院,上海200433 [2]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院,上海200433 [3]上海师范大学商学院,上海200234

出　　处：《财经研究》2015年第3期40-52,144,共14页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(08AJL009);上海市曙光学者项目(10SG42);上海师范大学重大预研究项目(A-0502-00-006002);上海财经大学研究生创新项目(CXJJ-2012-327)

摘　　要：文章基于多区域CGE模型,利用2007年区域间投入产出表相关数据,模拟分析了农业用水效率政策和水资源税政策对国民经济的影响。模拟结果表明:农业用水效率的提升可以节约各区域的生产用水量,并且有利于经济增长;对农业部门征收水资源税的政策也可以节约各区域的生产用水量,但是不利于经济增长;从节约生产用水量与促进经济增长角度来看,与水资源税政策相比,农业用水效率政策的效果更好。另外,模拟结果还发现:同一种政策对各区域经济变量的影响程度并不一致,方向也可能不一样;对生产用水需求来说,农业用水效率政策对东北、华北、黄淮海和西北区域的影响较大,而对长江中下游、东南、华南和西南区域的影响较小;农业部门征收水资源税的政策则对东北、西北、华南和西南区域的影响较大,而对华北、黄淮海、长江中下游和东南区域的影响较小。因此,中国在实施同一种农业水资源政策时,应该考虑到这一政策对各区域带来的不同影响,各区域也应该结合自身的实际情况选择农业水资源政策。Based on multi-regional CGE model and the data of inter-regional inputoutput table in 2007,this paper makes a simulation analysis of the effects of policies of water utilization efficiency in agriculture and water resources tax on the national economy.According to the simulation results,the rise in water utilization efficiency in agriculture can save regional water utilization in production,and is conducive to economic growth.The policy levying water resources tax on the agricultural sector can save regional water utilization in production,but is not conducive to economic growth.From the perspectives of saving regional water utilization in production and promoting economic growth,compared with water resources tax policy,the policy about water utilization efficiency in agriculture is a better one.In addition,the simulation results also show that the effects of the same policy on economic variables vary with regions in dimension and direction.As for the demand for water in agriculture,the policy concerning water utilisation efficiency in agriculture has stronger effects in Northeast China,North China,the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and Northwest China and weaker in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,Southeast China,South China and Southwest China;the policy levying water resources tax on the agricultural sector has stronger effects in Northeast China,Northwest China,South China and Southwest China,and weaker in North China,the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain,the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Southeast China.Therefore,when carrying out the same policy concerning water resources in agriculture,China should take the different effects of this policy in regions into account;local governments should select the policy concerning water resources in agriculture according to their own reality.

关 键 词：多区域CGE模型 农业用水效率 水资源税 政策模拟 

分 类 号：F323.213[经济管理—产业经济] F812.42F224