我国通货膨胀是一种财政现象吗——基于财政支出视角的时变参数研究  

Is Inflation a Fiscal Phenomenon in China? A Time- Varying Parameter Study from Perspective of Fiscal Expenditure

作　　者：李鹏[1,2] 杜亚斌[1] 毛德勇[1,3] 韩庆潇 

机构地区：[1]南京大学商学院,江苏南京210093 [2]郑州航空工业管理学院经贸学院,河南郑州450015 [3]中国建设银行江苏省分行,江苏南京210002

出　　处：《财贸研究》2015年第3期88-96,共9页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：河南省教育厅科学技术研究重点项目"金融发展推动河南省产业升级的机理研究"(13A790398);河南省软科学项目"河南省社区互助农业发展的模式与对策研究"(142400410107)

摘　　要：使用时变参数自回归(TVP-VAR)模型,从财政支出视角,对我国通货膨胀的财政属性进行研究。结果表明:在控制货币供给量和经济周期影响后,我国财政支出与CPI之间总体上具有正向变动关系;财政支出对CPI的影响在短期内较不稳定,但中长期非常显著,具有时变特征。进一步研究发现,2010年间的物价上涨具有更浓重的"财政色彩",1998年推出的积极财政政策对CPI的短期影响较大,而2008年推出的积极财政政策对CPI的中长期影响更明显;同时,投资性和消费性财政支出对CPI的影响存在明显差异。因此,我国通货膨胀不仅仅是一种货币现象,更是一种财政现象。This paper studies w hether inflation is a fiscal phenomenon or not w ith a TVP- VAR model. The results show that government expenditure and CPI have positive relationship in general after controlling the influence of money supply and business cycle. It is unstable in the short run but is very significant in the long run. Furthermore,the fiscal expenditure plays very important role in the price rising during2010. The impact of active fiscal policy introduced in 1998 on CPI is greater in the short run,w hile the impact of active fiscal policy introduced in 2008 on CPI is more obvious in the medium and long run. M eanw hile,different types of expenditures have obvious different influences on CPI. Thus,inflation is not only a monetary phenomenon,but also a fiscal phenomenon. The findings help to further understand it's occurrence of policy origin.

关 键 词：通货膨胀 财政支出 TVP-VAR模型 

分 类 号：F812.45[经济管理—财政学] F822.5