新经济周期波动态势下我国财政政策“挤出效应”机制的度量与检验  

Analysis of the Effects of Crowding out or Crowding in of Scales of Fiscal Deficits on Private Investments

作　　者：刘金全[1] 梁冰[2] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心 [2]吉林大学

出　　处：《南大商学评论》2007年第2期74-84,共11页Nanjing Business Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70471016);国家社会科学基金项目(05BJL019);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地2005年度重大研究项目(05JJD790078)资助

摘　　要：积极政策导致的赤字规模可能对私人部门投资具有"挤出(挤入)效应"。我们利用协整关系和误差修正模型来估计投资函数,并检验赤字规模对私人投资的短期和长期影响。实证检验发现,在长期内赤字规模对私人部门投资具有"挤入效应",而在短期内则具有"挤出效应"。目前实现国债和投资的利率期限结构调整,增加长期投资预期,可以降低财政政策的短期"挤出效应",进而有效降低通货膨胀压力和抑制投资需求。The scale of budget deficits may have the effects of crowding out or crowding in on private investment.By using the quarterly data of some macroeconomic variables,we estimated the investment function with cointegration model and error correction model,and tested the short run and long-run influences of deficits on private investments and fixed investment.The empirical evidences show that there is crowding in effect in long run,and crowding out effect in short run.Therefore,adjusting the term structure of government expenditure and increasing the expectation of long-rim investment could reduce the crowding out effect of active fiscal policy and the inflation pressure,and curtain the investment demand.

关 键 词：财政政策 预算赤字 投资需求 挤出效应 

分 类 号：F812.0[经济管理—财政学] F224