内蒙古中西部区域发展与水资源合理配置的多目标分析  

Multiple Objective Analysis of the Rational Allocation of Water Resources in the West of Inner Mongolia Region

作　　者：苏华[1] 王忠静[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学土木水利学院水利系水文及水资源研究所,北京100084

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2002年第4期393-399,共7页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目 (5 0 0 790 0 9)资助

摘　　要：结合内蒙古西部地区在社会经济发展进程中出现的生态环境恶化及水资源未充分合理利用的现实问题 ,建立了该区域基于水资源开发利用的宏观经济及生态系统的多目标模型 .在多目标优化预测中 ,利用天然草场的载畜量为传递因子 ,拟定包含生态质量信息的“绿色净面积”为目标变量之一 ,宏观的刻画了牧区草原生态与经济的相互作用过程 .模型研究了节水力度、区外工程投资力度、草原载畜量、供水工程规划等 4个可决策边界条件的不同方案对区域可持续发展的驱动和影响 .在牧区发展策略方面 ,模型计算出不同边界条件下的最佳减畜速率 .通过天然草原生态系统服务价值和模型目标变量接口的计算 ,进一步支持了模型优化所得的减畜方案 .In the social and economic development of the west of Inner Mongolia Region, there are a lot of urgent problems, such as deterioration in local ecological zones and inadequate utilization of water resources. The above embarrassment is also prevalent in some other arid regions of Northwest China. So in this paper an integrated macro-economy and ecology model is put forward based on local water resources utilization. This multi-objective macro-model consists of many development methods (scenarios) through linear optimization. The optimization model uses stocking rate of natural grasslands as “bridge factor” and designates “net green area” index (GREEN) as one of the four objectives used in the model, which includes the ecological information of grassland. The model describes mutual impressing procedure of ecology and economy in the pasturing area. Four impacts of the boundary parameters on the sustainable development of local area are studied. They are water saving extent, investment extent, stocking rate and water supply projects. Meanwhile, the financial intensity of the area itself is illustrated and that the rational allocation of water resources should be warranted by investment and stable water supply projects is pointed out. Whatever the financial investment out side the local area would be, the model approves that the current stocking rate should be steadily reduced and gives the most suitable reduction rate according to different methods raised in the model. Finally the grasslands' ecological and environmental damage value of some methods is computed out by “natural grassland ecological service value (per unit)” and the model's objective variant interface. These results, however, confirm the relevant methods in the model.

关 键 词：内蒙古 水资源 多目标模型 多态服务价值 生态经济 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]