制约重力模型的修正与应用  

Inducement of Revised Constrained Gravity Model and Its Calibration and Application

作　　者：王德[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学城市规划系,上海200092

出　　处：《同济大学学报（自然科学版）》2002年第9期1056-1060,共5页Journal of Tongji University:Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目 (5 983 82 90 )

摘　　要：首先对以标准人口迁移率为因变量的制约重力模型作了推导 ,给出了发生制约、吸引制约和发生 -吸收制约三种情况下各自的修正模型 ,并依据Newton -Raphson计算法给出修正后的发生制约模型的参数求解过程 .最后以日本经济高速成长期国内都道府县人口迁移为例 ,应用修正发生制约模型进行了实证研究 ,揭示了迁入地收入水平在高速经济发展的初期、中期和末期对人口吸引分别呈现高、中、低三种效应的特点 .Statistical data of migration are affected by the size of statistical regions.These data should be corrected as standard migration rate before analyzing.However,if we use these corrected data to construct a constrained gravity model,the original framework of the model argued by Wilson in 1960 s will be untenable.This paper induces a revised gravity model family with standard migration rate as its dependent factor.Revised constrained gravity models based on production constraint,attraction constraint,and production-attraction constraints are presented.Then Newton-Raphson method is applied for the calibration of production-constrained gravity model by using Japan's internal migration data.It reveals that destination income elasticity has high,middle and low effects on absorbing migrants at early,middle and final phase separately of Japan's rapid economic growth period.

关 键 词：标准人口迁移率 制约重力模型 Newton-Raphson计算法 日本 高速经济发展期 发生制约 吸引制约 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]