地震频次的Hurst指数在地震预报中的应用  

Application of Hurst index of earthquake frequency in the prediction of earthquake

作　　者：郭德科[1] 

机构地区：[1]濮阳市地震台,河南濮阳457000

出　　处：《华北地震科学》2002年第3期44-50,共7页North China Earthquake Sciences

摘　　要：引用 Hurst指数 ,对华北地区 1 8次中强地震前地震活动频次的 Hurst指数进行了分析和研究 ,总结出了中强地震前地震活动频次的 Hurst指数 H值的异常变化特征。同时 ,把该方法应用到了河南及邻区中等地震预报研究中 ,制定了预报规则 ,进行了预测内符检验和预报评分 ,结果表明 ,该方法是一种有效的中短期地震预报方法 。the Hurst index of earthquake frequency before 18 medium and strong earthquakes in north China is analysed.The characteristic of H value for the Hurst index of earthquake frequency before medium and strong earthquakes is summarised.The method has been used in earthquake prediction of Henan Province and its adjacent area,and the regulation for prediction is also established.After test with inner coincidence and prediction scoring,we find it is an effective method for medium term and short term prediction.

关 键 词：地震活动频次 HURST指数 地震预报 河南 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]