短期负荷预测中考虑积温效应的温度修正模型研究  

Temperature Correction Model Research Considering Temperature Cumulative Effect in Short-Term Load Forecasting

作　　者：高赐威[1] 李倩玉[1] 苏卫华[2] 李扬[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学江苏省智能电网技术与装备重点实验室,南京210096 [2]上海市电力公司松江供电公司,上海201600

出　　处：《电工技术学报》2015年第4期242-248,共7页Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51277028);上海市电力公司科技(SGSHSJ-002SJS1302046)资助项目

摘　　要：由于夏季负荷受温度因素影响较大,持续高温天气会造成积温效应,导致负荷出现一定程度的非常规增长,传统的短期负荷预测方法难以满足实际需求。因此,为了反映积温效应的影响程度,本文提出了温度修正模型,通过拟合温升曲线、求解负荷温度弹性系数来确定高温日的界限温度,同时给出了利用相关系数求解最大累计天数和累积效应系数的方法。算例分析表明,所提出的方法能够准确地反映积温效应的影响,提高短期负荷预测的精度。Because of the significant impact of temperature factors on load in summer, sustained hot weather will cause the temperature cumulative effect, resulting in a certain degree of abnormal growth of load. The traditional short-term load forecasting method is difficult to meet the actual demand. Therefore, temperature modifying formula is proposed in order to reflect the influence of temperature cumulative effect. Through fitting temperature-load curve and solving load temperature elastic coefficient, the limit temperature of scorching weather day is determined. Meanwhile, a new method is proposed to solve maximum cumulative days and cumulative effect coefficient using correlation coefficient. It is proved by a case study that the method proposed can accurately reflect the impact of the temperature cumulative effect and improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting.

关 键 词：短期负荷预测 积温效应 负荷温度弹性系数 最大累积天数 累积效应系数 相关系数 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]