人口集聚区吸纳人口迁入的影响因素——以东莞市为例  

Impacting factors of population agglomeration areas on migration: a case study in Dongguan City

作　　者：吕晨[1] 孙威[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大学科技管理学院,北京100049 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [3]中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2014年第5期593-604,共12页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(41101138);中国博士后科学基金项目(2012M510409);中国科学院大学校长基金项目(Y25102MN00)

摘　　要：人口集聚区的地域特征差异对人口迁移行为产生较大影响,从地域特征出发研究人口集聚区对于迁入人口的作用机制可为地域功能区划和配置公共服务设施提供参考。本文以人口迁移的推拉理论为基础,构建人口集聚区对迁入人口拉力作用的指标体系。以东莞市为案例,综合运用主成分分析和多元回归分析方法,识别人口集聚区对迁入人口的作用力以及各类拉力的作用强度。结果显示:①东莞市各乡镇人口集聚程度差异较大,且空间分布不均衡;在1995-2000年全市人口迅速集聚期,区域人口集聚度主要与地区就业岗位增加、人均收入水平提高、人口迁移的路径依赖相关。②该市以劳动密集型加工业为主的产业特色给迁入人口提供了更多的就业机会;其相对较高的工资水平,对外来人口形成了强大的吸引力。③人口以路径依赖的形式进行链式迁移可以减低迁移过程中的风险和成本。④对人口集聚作用由强到弱依次为:路径依赖拉力、就业岗位拉力、收入水平拉力;综合的区域拉力与人口集聚度呈三次曲线关系。Differences in characteristics of population agglomeration areas significantly affect migration.Research on the effect of location-specific characteristics of population agglomeration areas on migration would enrich the study of population geography and provide references for territorial function zoning and the provision of public service facilities.This article explores the effect of pull factors of population agglomeration areas on migration by investigating immigration in Dongguan,Guangdong Province in the period between 1995 and 2000,when the number of immigrants increased most rapidly.Based on the classic push and pull theory,an indicator system was built to calculate the pulling effect of population agglomeration areas.The relationship between different pull factors and population aggregation was analyzed using principle component analysis and multiple regression analysis.The results show that population aggregation varied greatly between different towns and its distribution was spatially uneven in Dongguan.There was a very large number of immigrants aggregated during 1995- 2000 and the population aggregation was affected by employment opportunities,per capita income,and the migration path dependence in different towns.The large number of labor-intensive manufacturing industries characterized the industrial development in Dongguan,which provided great employment opportunities for migrant workers from areas lacking job opportunities.The large number of specialized industrial towns gained economies of agglomeration,which led to rapid economy growth and high salary that attracted lots of immigrants to the city.Migration path dependence also affected the immigration.The migrants often followed their predecessors' destination choices.This imitative behavior comes from the consideration of reducing migration risk and cost.These migrants are often countrymen or relatives.The early immigrants often help the late comers for example by introducing the latter to the companies they work and sometime providing accommoda

关 键 词：人口集聚 收入水平 就业岗位 路径依赖 空间分异 东莞市 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]