未来气候情景下气候变化响应过程研究综述  

A Review of Climate Change Scenario for Impacts Process Study

作　　者：成爱芳[1] 冯起[1] 张健恺[2] 李宗省[1] 王岗[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃兰州730000 [2]兰州大学大气科学学院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《地理科学》2015年第1期84-90,共7页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：中国科学院重点部署类项目(KZZD-EW-04-05)资助

摘　　要：气候变化将会对生态系统、自然资源、极端气候和人类社会产生一定的影响,科学评估未来气候变化响应是应对气候变化的前提。通过对当前研究成果的回顾,建立未来气候情景下气候变化响应研究的系统思路,并总结了研究所涉及的方法。系统论述了应用第5阶段耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)气候模式前进行适用性评价的必要性;分析了当前降尺度方法尤其是统计降尺度的主要方法及进展;归纳了偏差校正过程中普遍使用的方法,最后,综合分析了整个研究过程中的不确定性。研究将为气候变化响应分析提供方法和思路指导。Global climate change will have great effects on ecological systems, natural resources, food security,climate extremes, cryosphere and the damage to human social living conditions. Scientific assessment of projected climate change impacts is a vital way for stakeholder and policymaker to adjust strategies at the local scale. Outline of contents and related methods and key issues are discussed for climate change impacts study on RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) climate models by the summary of the current literatures. The article investigates the necessity of applicability evaluation before using the climate models from CMIP5 at the region and summarizes the methods applied to metric whether the model is reasonable to project the climate scenarios in the region. Downscaling methods that can bridge the gap between the coarse spatial resolution of global circulation model(GCM) and high resolution of climate variables are required for impacts evaluation at the local scale. The review introduces the fundamental principles and current main methods for downscaling climate variables, especially for statistical downscaling, and summarizes the latest progresses in this field. The GCM often show significant biases that include systematic model errors caused by imperfect conceptualization, discretization and spatial averaging within the grid cell.So bias correction methods are applied to remedy the biased output of GCM, RCM and downscaled them. We conclude with the commonly using bias correction method and recent development in this field. How to deal with uncertainties from GCM, downscaling method and bias correction is also a challenge for impact study.The article discusses the uncertainties in every step of the whole process. The review will provide the guideline for projection of climate change impacts in the region.

关 键 词：降尺度方法 偏差校正方法 气候变化响应 CMIP5 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]