近30年湖北省16城市综合发展水平的时空演化  

The Spatial-temporal Evolution of Comprehensive Development Level of 16 Cities of Hubei Province in Last 30 Years

作　　者：郑文升[1,2,3] 刘浩[2,3,4] 马琳[5] 王晓芳[1,2,3] 罗静[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学地理过程分析与模拟湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430079 [2]湖北省发展和改革委员会 [3]华中师范大学武汉城市圈研究院,湖北武汉430079 [4]北京大学政府管理学院,北京100871 [5]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871

出　　处：《地理科学》2015年第6期756-764,共9页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41001100;41371183);国家社会科学基金项目(13BGL155);湖北省社科基金一般项目(2014031);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(CCNU15A02003;CCNU15A05003;CCNU15ZD001)资助

摘　　要：以湖北省16个副地级以上城市为研究对象,以近30 a来的改革开放阶段为研究时段(1984~2013年),构筑涵盖经济生产、社会生活与生态景观3个子系统的评价指标体系,使用AHP法为权重赋值,分别构建增长系数、协调系数与综合系数3个维度的测度模型,计算各年度各城市综合发展水平,基于Arc GIS10.0、DPS7.05与SPSS19软件,使用系统聚类、二阶段聚类、有序样本分类、非线性映射分析、Pearson相关分析、Mann-Kendall突变分析、全局莫兰指数、变异系数、局部莫兰指数等工具,模拟分析城市综合发展水平的整体时序演化(城市聚类、时段划分与演化趋势)、个体时序演化与空间格局演化(全局格局与局部格局)。结果表明,湖北省绝大多数城市的综合发展趋势正在出现积极变化,次级规模城市更具优势,总体差距仍较明显,毗邻城市差距逐渐收敛,国家发展观念、地区战略及体制机制的变化、城市发展的基础格局、城市规模的辩证作用、城市的地域特征深刻影响城市综合发展的时空格局。The urban development pattern is an important perspective to understand the matter of regional coordination development, and the comprehensive development of urban economic, society and ecosystem is the important carrier and collective representation of a region's comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development. This article chose 16 cities of Hubei Province as study objects, set the 30-years reform and opening as its study period(1984-2013), and constructed an evaluation index system, by which economic production, social life and ecological landscape are included as its subsystems, to calculate the yearly comprehensive development levels of the cities. It used AHP to assign weights for the system's factors and built measure mode respectively, which includes three dimensions comprised of the growth coefficient, coordination coefficient and comprehensive coefficient. Based on Arc GIS10.0, DPS7.05 and SPSS19, this study used tools such as hierarchical clustering, two-step clustering, ordinal swatches classification, nonlinear mapping analysis, Pearson correlation analysis, Mann-Kendall mutation analysis, global Moran's I, variation coefficient, Local Moran's I,and so on, to simulate the analysis of the collective temporal evolution, individual temporal evolution and spatial pattern evolution(whole and part pattern) of urban comprehensive development level(urban clustering, temporal partition and evolution trend). The result shows that the comprehensive development levels of most cities have been presenting positive changes and the sub-scale cities were more predominant. The total gap was obvious, while the gaps between two adjacent cities have been gradually converged. The changes in national development concepts, regional strategies and system mechanisms, the urban development basic patterns, the city scale's dialectical role and the city's regional features were all have a profound influence in the special-temporal pattern of urban comprehensive development.

关 键 词：城市综合发展水平 时空演化 改革开放 湖北 

分 类 号：C912.81[经济管理]