云南安宁工业区工业经济-水资源-水污染系统仿真模型及策略分析  

THE SIMULATION MODEL OF THE SYSTEM OF INDUSTRY ECONOMY-WATER RESOURCES-WATER POLLUTION AND ITS STRATEGY ANALYSIS IN THE ANNING INDUSTRIAL REGION, YUNNAN

作　　者：陶文东[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境科学研究所

出　　处：《自然资源学报》1991年第4期380-388,共9页Journal of Natural Resources

摘　　要：水资源短缺和水污染是安宁工业区经济发展的重要限制因素。本文将该工业区分解为3个子区,应用系统动态学方法,建立多区相关的工业经济-水资源-水污染系统仿真模型,分别对各子区1985至2000年的工业产值、工业用水差距和水质进行多方案预测。在子区域综合的基础上,结合多级决策树法,筛选出安宁工业区协调工业经济、水资源和水质之间关系的最佳方案。Water resources shortage and water pollution are the major limiting factors to the economic development of the Anning industrial region. This paper divides the industrial region into 3 sub-regions and establishes a multi-regional interrelated system dynamic model of the system of industry economy-water resources-water pollution in the Anning industrial region. The industrial output value, industrial water supply gap and water pollutant concentration of the 3 sub-regions are predicted for the period 1985 to 2000 with the model. On the basis of the integration of the 3 sub-regions, the optimum scheme for coordinating the industry economy, water resources and water pollution is sifted out by using the multihierarchical decision-making tree method.

关 键 词：工业经济 水资源 水污染 规划 

分 类 号：F424.1[经济管理—产业经济]