地震动力过程与地震预测模型研究  

The Study of the Dynamical Process and the Model of Earthquake Prediction

作　　者：武孔春[1] 樊耀新[1] 温一波[2] 

机构地区：[1]云南省地震局,昆明650041 [2]云南大学地球科学系,昆明650091

出　　处：《地震研究》2002年第4期341-345,共5页Journal of Seismological Research

摘　　要：地震的孕育、发生和发展是地球介质内微裂纹系演化的动力过程 ,包含线性成核扩展阶段和临界增长阶段 ,后一阶段涉及到裂纹系的非线性增长与涨落耗散 ,并当达到某个临界点时 。The genesis,the development and the occurrence of the earthquake indicate a dynamical process of the micro-crack clusters' evolution in the medium of the Earth.This dynamic process includes the stage of linear-nucleation expansion and the stage of critical development.The latter is concerned with the non-linear development and rising-dropping dissipation of the micro-crack clusters.When critical development reaches a certain critical point,a single crack will dominates the evolution process.Then,the earthquake happens.

关 键 词：地震预测模型 地震动力过程 微裂纹 涨落耗散 发震断裂 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]