摩尔定律的思想潜力和极限  

The Ideology Potential and Limitation of Moore' s Law

作　　者：马群刚[1] 杨建飞[2] 李跃进[1] 杨银堂[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安电子科技大学微电子研究所,陕西西安710071 [2]西北大学经济管理学院,陕西西安710069

出　　处：《中国软科学》2002年第9期70-76,共7页China Soft Science

摘　　要：集成电路是电子信息产业的核心,在其发展过程中,摩尔定律起到了预言和导向的作用,所以,摩尔定律的思想潜力和应用极限不仅关系到信息产业的前景,也关系到目前人类技术思想的前沿趋向和社会经济形态的进化与转型。本文结合科学方法论关于在两极中保持张力的准则,分别阐述并预测了摩尔定律在电脑、语言辨识、光纤设备和光器件中的应用以及促使摩尔定律达到极限的几个技术思想方面的问题。Integrated circuit(IC)is the core of the electron informati on industry.During the developing c ourse of IC,Moore' s Law plays a role of function of predi ct and orientation.Therefore,the i deology potential and appli-cation limitation of Moore' s Law impact not only on the foregroun d of information industry,but also o n the ten-dency of human technology thought ,t he evolution as well as module -changing of society' s economy shape.In this paper,combined with the principle in science methodology that the t ension is maintained in two poles,th e authors explain and forecast the application of Moore' s Law in computer,language distingu ishing,equipment and device.At the same time some problem s of technology ideology urging Moore' s Law to the extent of limitation are also showed.

关 键 词：摩尔定律 集成电路 信息产业 极限 应用价值 光器件设计制造 光纤设备 

分 类 号：TN4[电子电信—微电子学与固体电子学]