犯罪与现代化——法律经济分析的宏观视角  

Crime and Modernization——Economic Analysis of Law with Macro-perspective

作　　者：罗煜[1] 冯玉军[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学法学院

出　　处：《制度经济学研究》2005年第3期85-105,共21页Research on Institutional Economics

摘　　要：任何社会都不可避免地存在着一定数量和种类的犯罪,现代化是犯罪问题发生的情境和解释维度。本文运用宏观经济分析的方法,尝试从一系列犯罪决定因素中概括一到两个关键性的变量,深入剖析犯罪率与社会经济发展的内在关系。并通过几个典型国家的实例和国际比较,在理论分析基础上建立犯罪率与现代化进程关系的实证模型,得出:一个国家的犯罪状况的严重程度与其社会经济发展的总体水平和结构协调与否有显著关联,总体水平和结构差异各自和交互地决定一国宏观的犯罪状况。长期而言,犯罪率与现代化的关系表现为Logistic曲线形状,即"两个稳态,一个转型";短期而言,经济发展速度与犯罪增长负相关,而贫富差距水平与犯罪率正相关;这些结论对我国构建社会主义和谐社会的战略规划和刑事政策有一定的启示作用。Crime is inevitable in any society,which occurs in and explained by the process of modernization to some sense.This paper analyzes the key relations between crime and modernization,based on the generalization of various factors which lead to crime.We draw the conclusion on an empirical study that the severity of overall criminal situation are significantly influenced by the general level of the economic development and the social structure in a country,and the differences of them determine the criminal situation separately and interactively.In the long run,the relationship between crime and modernization is likely Logistic Curve.In initial stage of the modernization,the crime rate keeps steady,in fast developing period,the crime rate is close to rising sharply,and resume again being steady on later stage,namely 'two stable states,one makes the transition'.In the shortrun,the economic growth speed negatively affects the crime rate while the income distribution gap positively.

关 键 词：犯罪率 现代化 法律经济学 宏观分析 实证研究 

分 类 号：D917[政治法律—法学]