北京市第三产业用水特征及其发展策略  

Water Features and Development Strategy of Tertiary Industry in Beijing

作　　者：洪思扬[1] 王红瑞[1] 程涛[1] 来文立[1] 焦志倩[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2016年第5期108-116,共9页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基于Var水资源短缺风险模型体系及应用"(编号:51279006)

摘　　要：第三产业在北京市的产业格局中占有日益重要的地位,从水资源配置的视角探寻三产结构优化策略具有重要现实意义。采用LMDI分解方法,定量分析北京市第三产业用水结构变化驱动力特征,基于投入产出法计算各行业部门的用水系数,并进行用水特性和行业关联的聚类分析。结果表明,产业规模的快速增长是第三产业用水需求增长的决定性因素,2007-2013年间,累计使总用水量增加了34 476.24万m^3,产业结构效应和技术效应则对用水量的增加起抑制作用,两者分别使用水量减少2 861.29万m^3和21 908.17万m^3,产业结构效应和技术效应对用水的抑制作用不及经济产出效应对用水的拉动作用,最终导致用水量的增长。不同行业之间的用水系数有较大差异,水利、环境和公共设施管理、教育等行业的用水系数相对较大,批发和零售业、金融业的用水系数相对较小,科学研究技术服务和地质勘查等行业的用水乘数较大。第三产业中的高用水行业包括住宿和餐饮业等7个行业部门,潜在高用水行业包括批发和零售业等6个行业;一般用水行业为居民服务和其他服务业。聚类分析结果表明,对于诸如租赁和商务服务业及科学研究技术服务业等感应度系数较大的行业,应优先保障水资源的供给,使用高配额、低水价的管理方式;对于文化体育业等感应度系数较小的行业,可使用低配额、高水价的管理方式,限制用水量;对于配额高且水耗低的产业,可采取水权转让手段,将富余的水权转让给水耗高且产出高的产业。最后,针对研究结果,提出水权交易、技术推广、政策管理与机制构建四方面建议,为第三产业经济增长与用水之间的协调发展提供借鉴。The tertiary industry occupies an increasingly important position in Beijing's industrial structure,and it is of great practical significance in exploring optimization strategies for tertiary industry structure from the perspective of water resources allocation.Quantitative analysis are made on the driving force characteristics of water utilization structure in Beijing with LMDI decomposition method,and the water usage coefficients of different sectors are calculated based on input-output method,and the cluster analysis are also made on the water usage feature and industry association.The results showed that the rapid growth of the industrial scale is the decisive factor of the growth of tertiary industry water demand,and the total water consumption increased by 344.76 millon m^3 from2007 to 2013.Additionally,the structure and technology effect inhibited the growth of water utilization,and they reduced 28.61 and219.08 millon m^3 respectively.Moreover,the inhibiting effect caused by structure effect and technology effect was not as good as the stimulating effect caused by output effect,which led to a rising demand for water utilization.Water usage coefficients in different sectors also have large differences.For example,water usage coefficients in water conservancy,environment,public facilities management and education sector were relatively large,while in wholesale and retail trade and financial sector the coefficients were relatively small.And water consumption multipliers in scientific research technical services and geological prospecting are relatively large.High water utilization sectors in the tertiary industry include accommodation and catering sector and other six sectors.Potential high water utilization sectors include wholesale and retail trade sector and other five sectors.General water utilization sectors include resident services and other service sector.As for sectors whose coefficient degrees are relatively large such as leasing and business service and scientific research technical service sector,

关 键 词：第三产业用水 因素分解 投入产出 产业关联 

分 类 号：F719[经济管理—产业经济] TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]