PRE-ESTIMATE FOR THE CHANGE OF CLIMATIC VULNERABILITY TO AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN LOESS PLATEAU,CHINA  

作　　者：Hou Yahong 1 and Liu Wenquan 2 (1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences of Nanjing University, Nanjing 210008 2.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081) 

出　　处：《Natural Disaster Reduction in China》2003年第4期38-41,共4页中国减灾（英文版）

摘　　要：In Loess Plateau, which has a vulnerable ecological condition, the influence of climatic change on agricultural production is great. Based on introducing the relative definitions of vulnerability and evaluations and schemes of climatic vuhnerability to agricultural production, this paper makes a preliminary evaluation on the vulnerable condition in 1997; and by using the relative results of GCM pre\|estimate, it estimates the possible changes of related index of the disaster; and estimates the future possible changes of climatic vulnerability to agricultural production in Loess Plateau. Its evaluation method and pre\|estimate results can provide a certain scientific basis to the decision of departments concerned.In Loess Plateau, which has a vulnerable ecological condition, the influence of climatic change on agricultural production is great. Based on introducing the relative definitions of vulnerability and evaluations and schemes of climatic vuhnerability to agricultural production, this paper makes a preliminary evaluation on the vulnerable condition in 1997; and by using the relative results of GCM pre\|estimate, it estimates the possible changes of related index of the disaster; and estimates the future possible changes of climatic vulnerability to agricultural production in Loess Plateau. Its evaluation method and pre\|estimate results can provide a certain scientific basis to the decision of departments concerned.

关 键 词：CLIMATIC CHANGE VULNERABILITY agricultural production LOESS PLATEAU 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学]