中国核电与其他发电技术比较评价(英文)  

Case Study on Comparative Assessment of Nuclear and Coal-Fueled Electricity Generation Options and Strategy for Nuclear Power Development in China

作　　者：赵世平 施向军[1] 鲍云樵 莫雪峰 韦志红[2] 方栋[2] 马玉清[2] 李红[2] 周大地 刘小丽 薛新民 潘自强 李旭彤 

机构地区：[1]中国核工业经济研究中心,北京100037 [2]清华大学核能技术设计研究院,北京100084 [3]国家计委能源研究所,北京102206 [4]中国核工业集团公司安防环保卫生部,北京100822

出　　处：《中国核科技报告》2000年第1期81-168,共2页China Nuclear Science and Technology Report

摘　　要：目前,中国同其他国家一样,正在寻求可持续发展的道路。在能源/电力领域,考虑到中国的核工业能力,核电应是中国可选择的电力能源之一。作者通过对能源/电力技术的比较评价,研究核电在未来中国能源/电力系统中所能发挥的作用。主要结论如下:(1)到 2020 年,中国总装机容量将达到 750～879 GW,这就意味着从 2001 年到 2020 年需新增装机容量 460～590 GW;(2)到2020 年,发电产生的 SO2 排放量将达到 16～18 Mt,约为 1995 年的 2.8～3.2 倍;(3)到 2020 年,发电产生的 CO2排放量将达到 21～24 Gt;(4)煤电燃料链的环境影响和健康风险要远大于核电链,在中国,由煤电链引起的归一化健康风险是 20.12 死亡/百万千瓦年,而核电链是 4.64 死亡/百万千瓦年;(5)据专家估计,即使考虑到最大的煤炭生产能力、水电和可再生资源的充分利用,到2050 年,中国仍将有 200 GW 的电力缺口。核电将是填补这一缺口的唯一途径。China, as other countries in the world, is seeking for a way of sustainable development. In energy/electricity field, nuclear power is one of electric energy options considering the China’s capability of nuclear industry. The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of nuclear power in China’s energy/electricity system in future by comprehensive assessment. The main conclusions obtained from this study are: (1) China will need a total generation capacity of 750～879 GW in 2020, which means new power units of 460～590 GW generation capacity will be built from 2001 to 2020. (2) the total amount of SO2 emission from power production will rise to 16～18 Mt in 2020, about 2.8～3.2 times of 1995, even if the measures to control SO2 emission are taken for all new coal units. (3) CO2 emission from electricity generation will reach 21～24 Gt in 2020. (4) the environmental impacts and health risks of coal-fired energy chain are treater than that of nuclear chain. The normalized health risk caused by coal chain is 20.12 deaths/GW·a but 4.63 deaths/GW·a by nuclear chain in China. (5) As estimated by experts, there will be a shortage of 200 GW in 2050 in China even if considering the maximum production of coal, the utilization of hydropower and renewable resource. Nuclear power is the only way to fill the gap between demand and supply.

关 键 词：China INVESTMENT CONST have SCENARIO Power CAPITAL Project only more 

分 类 号：TL[核科学技术]