作物模型输入变量的敏感性分析  

Sensitivity Analysis of the ALMANAC Model's Input Variables

作　　者：谢云[1] James R.Kiniry Jimmy R.Williams 陈友民[3] 林而达[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [2]美国农业部农业研究局草原水土研究实验室,德克萨斯州76502 [3]中国农业科学院农业气象研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国农业科学》2002年第10期1208-1214,共7页Scientia Agricultura Sinica

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划资助项目"草地与农牧交错带生态系统重建机理及优化生态 生产范式"(G2 0 0 0 0 1860 2 );国家自然科学基金资助项目 (4 0 1710 5 9)

摘　　要：运行作物模型需要大量的输入变量。为了方便模型用户建立模型变量数据库 ,研究估计了作物模型 ALMANAC主要模型输入变量的重要程度。根据在美国德克萨斯州 8个县主要玉米品种的田间试验资料 ,首先建立了模拟 10年 (1989～ 1998年 )玉米和高粱产量的标准数据库 ,模拟结果与实产吻合程度很好。以此为基础 ,分别分析了产量对太阳辐射、降雨、土壤层厚度、土壤有效水分以及径流曲线数变化的敏感性。结果表明 ,径流曲线数变化对于模拟结果的影响最大 ,其次分别是降雨和太阳辐射。玉米对所有变量变化的敏感性都大于高粱。获得合适的降雨资料 ,准确估计径流曲线数 ,对于作物生长模拟十分重要。Crop models often require extensive input data sets to realistically simulate crop growth. Development of such input data sets can be difficult for some model users. The objective of this study was to evaluate the importance of variables in input data sets for crop modeling. Based on published data of hybrid performance in field trials of hybrid maize in eight Texas counties in the United States of America, we developed standard data sets of 10 year simulations of maize and sorghum for these eight counties with the ALMANAC (agricultural land management alternatives with numerical assessment criteria) model. The simulation results were close to the measured yields in the counties with relative error only 2.6% for maize, and -0.6% for sorghum. We then analyzed the sensitivity of grain yield to solar radiation, rainfall, soil depth, soil plant available water, and runoff curve number, comparing simulated yields to those with the original, standard data sets. Runoff curve number changes had the greatest impact on simulated maize and sorghum yields for all the counties. The next most critical input was rainfall, and then solar radiation for both maize and sorghum, especially for the dryland condition. For irrigated sorghum, solar radiation was the second most critical input instead of rainfall. The degree of sensitivity of yield to all variables for maize was larger than that for sorghum except for solar radiation. Many models use an USDA curve number approach to represent soil water redistribution, so it will be important to have accurate curve numbers, rainfall, and soil depth to realistically simulate yields.

关 键 词：作物模型 输入变量 敏感性分析 径流曲线数 ALMANAC模型 作物产量模拟 

分 类 号：S311[农业科学—作物栽培与耕作技术]