南海夏季风爆发日期和强度的短期气候预测方法研究  

Short Range Climate Prediction of the Onset and Intensity of South China Sea Summer Monsoon

作　　者：何敏[1] 许力[1] 宋文玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2002年第10期9-14,共6页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家九五重中之重科技项目"我国短期气候预测系统的研究"(96 90 8 0 6 0 1 3)加强课题的资助

摘　　要：利用合成及相关统计方法 ,研究冬季南海季风指数与 85 0hPa风场、5 0 0hPa高度、海表温度、OLR等环境场的相互关系及其影响南海夏季风活动的可能机制。指出冬季南海季风指数及环境场的异常特征可以作为预测南海夏季风活动的前兆信号。在此基础上建立了预测南海夏季风爆发日期和强度的概念模型 ,1998～ 2 0 0 1年的预测试验取得了较好成绩。The short range climate prediction of the onset and the intensity of South China Sea summer monsoon are studied. The relationships between the South China Sea Monsoon Index (SCSMI) and the environmental fields, such as 850hPa wind, 500hPa height, SST, OLR, are examined. The possible mechanism of the relationship with the South China Sea Summer Monsoon (SCSSM) is discussed. The anomaly of the SCSMI in winter and the previous environmental fields may be used as a earlier signal to indicate the onset and intensity of SCSSM. Based on the above research results, a concept model is raised for the prediction of onset and intensity of SCSSM. The trial prediction in 1998—2001 got a satisfied assessment.

关 键 词：夏季风 爆发日期 强度 南海 短期气候预测 环境场 

分 类 号：P457.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P463.3