中强地震时间间隔威布尔分布的预报应用  

Application of Weibull Distribution in Prediction for Medium-Strong Earthquake's Recurrence Interval

作　　者：李强[1] 徐桂明[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省地震局,江苏南京210014

出　　处：《山西地震》2002年第4期22-23,27,共3页Earthquake Research in Shanxi

摘　　要：威布尔分布是一种常用的分布函数 ,已被广泛地应用于地震活动性的研究中。用威布尔分布的理论建立了江苏及邻区中强地震时间间隔威布尔分布的模型。对未来几年江苏省 5 .0级以上地震发生的概率作了预测。Weibull distribution is a distribution function which is often used . It has being widely used in studies on seismicity. A Weibull distribution model of medium-strong earthquake's recurrence interval for Jiangsu and its adjacent area is set up. The probability are predicted for earthquakes larger than magnitude of 5 0 in the years to come.

关 键 词：概率 地震复发间隔 威布尔分布 地震预报 地震活动性 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学] P315.5[天文地球—固体地球物理学]