实际汇率变动对海峡两岸贸易影响的实证分析——基于国民经济行业分类标准  

An empirical research of the impact of real exchange rate changes on cross-strait trade:Based on the classification standard of national economy industry level

作　　者：喻旭兰[1] 邓芳[1] YU Xulan;DENG Fang(College of Finance and Statistics, Hunan University, Changsha 410079, China)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学金融与统计学院,湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《中南大学学报（社会科学版）》2016年第5期93-100,共8页Journal of Central South University：Social Sciences

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学规划基金"ECFA框架下海峡两岸金融合作机制研究"(13YJA790144)

摘　　要：基于国民经济行业分类标准,选取海峡两岸2009—2014年不同行业进出口季度数据,运用面板数据模型分析人民币兑新台币实际汇率变动对两岸不同行业进出口的影响程度。研究结果表明实际汇率变动对两岸不同行业进出口的影响存在明显差别,大陆向台湾地区出口的汇率弹性远大于大陆从台湾地区进口的汇率弹性,说明大陆向台湾地区出口更易受两岸实际汇率变动的影响;但随着行业技术含量的增加,受实际汇率变动的影响逐渐减小。因此,企业应加强汇率风险管理,提高产品技术含量;货币当局应维持两岸汇率稳定,共同努力降低汇率变动给两岸贸易带来的负面影响。Based on the classification standard of national economy industry, the present study selects from cross-strait different industry export and import quarterly data from 2009 to 2014, and adopts the panel data model to analyze the impact of CNY/TWD real exchange rate changes on the import and export of different industries between cross-strait.The results show that there are significant differences in the impact of CNY/TWD real exchange rate in different industries between cross-strait. Through analysis, the exchange rate elasticity of export from the Mainland to Taiwan is much larger than that of import of the Mainland from Taiwan. It is explained that the Mainland export to Taiwan manufacturing industry is more affected by the CNY/TWD real exchange rate. And with the increase of the industrial technical content, the influence of CNY/TWD real exchange rate is gradually reduced. Finally, suggestions are put forward as follows. Enterprises should strengthen the exchange rate risk management and improve product technology.The monetary authorities should maintain the stability of cross-straits, and work together to reduce the negative impact of exchange rate changes on cross-strait trade.

关 键 词：实际汇率 海峡两岸贸易 REDUX模型 面板数据模型 国民经济行业分类 

分 类 号：F759.6[经济管理—国际贸易]