基于LUCC的艾比湖区域生态风险评价及预测研究  

Ecological risk assessment and prediction of Ebinur Lake region based on Land use/Land cover change

作　　者：张月[1,2] 张飞[1,2,3] 王娟[1,2] 任岩[1,2] Abduwasit Ghulam[4] Hsiang-te KUNG ZHANG Yue;ZHANG Fei;WANG Juan;REN Yan(College of Resources and Environment Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China;Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China;Key Laboratory of Xinjiang Wisdom City and Environment Modeling, Urumqi 830046, China;Center for sustainability, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO 63108, USA;Department of Earth Sciences, University of Memphis, Memphis, TN 38152, USA)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830046 [2]新疆大学绿洲生态教育部重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830046 [3]新疆智慧城市与环境建模普通高校重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830046 [4]美国圣路易斯大学可持续发展中心,密苏里州圣路易斯63108 [5]美国孟菲斯大学地球科学系,田纳西州孟菲斯38152

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2016年第11期3465-3474,共10页China Environmental Science

基　　金：自治区青年科技创新人才培养工程项目(2013731002);国家自然科学基金项目(41361045;41130531);教育部"长江学者和创新团队发展计划"创新团队项目(IRT1180);新疆绿洲生态(教育部省部共建)重点实验室开放课题(XJDX0201-2012-01)

摘　　要：以新疆内陆艾比湖流域典型区域为研究区,基于RS和GIS技术分析1998、2013年土地利用变化,尝试用CA-Markov模型预测2028年土地利用/覆盖变化.借助Fragstats3.4软件,基于土地利用/覆盖变化构建景观生态风险评价模型,分析1998~2028年景观生态风险的时空分异特征.结果表明:(1)1998~2013年,研究区土地类型面积变化明显.耕地面积增加量最大,增加的面积为152139hm^2,而未利用地面积减少量最大,减少的面积为67605hm^2.2013~2028年,耕地和裸露的河床及盐渍地的面积增加明显,增加的面积分别为30730hm^2,12427hm^2,而未利用地和水体的面积分别从954376hm^2和44889hm^2,减至921079hm^2和37157hm^2.(2)1998~2028年,研究区生态风险等级空间分布差异明显.高生态风险区面积变化较为显著,其面积分别约占总面积的36.6%,7.3%,23.7%.1998~2028年,全局Moran’s I值分别为0.436962,0.442202,0.506622,表现为一定程度的正相关.(3)1998~2028年,耕地分布在低,较低生态风险的比重上升,所占百分比分别为58.46%,78.58%,79.9%.林、草地类型的各生态风险等级的所占的比重的波动较大.This paper presented a study of land use and land cover change from 1998 to 2013, and likelihood of changethrough 2028 using remote sensing, geographic information system, and CA-Markov model in inland area of Ebinur lakebasin in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. Fragstats 3.4 to construct landscape ecological risk assessment model wasused. Spatial distribution of landscape ecological risks due to land use changes in the study area was analyzed. Resultsshowed that: (1) the area of land types changed significantly in the study area from 1998 to 2013. For example, area ofcultivated land was significantly increased to 152139 hm2. However, area of unutilized land was correspondinglydecreased, which was 67605 hm2. From 2013 to 2028, cultivated land and the bared lakebed and salinized land increasedsignificantly, approximately 30730 hm2 and 12427 hm2 respectively. However, area of unutilized land and water weredecreased significantly from 954376 hm2 and 44889 hm2 to 921079 hm2 and 37157hm2, respectively. (2) From 1998 to2028, spatial distributions of ecological risk have changed significantly in the study area. Areas of high ecological riskaccounted for 36.6%, 7.3%, and 23.7% of the total area, respectively. From 1998 to 2028, the Moran’s I values were0.436962, 0.442202, 0.506622, respectively. Moran's I of the landscape pattern showed positive spatial autocorrelation,and had a rising trend. (3) From 1998 to 2028, the cultivated land distribution in the low and lower ecological risk area have increased. Its area accounted for the total area about 58.46%, 78.58%, and 79.9%, respectively. Forest, grasslandecological risk levels fluctuated in different levels.

关 键 词：艾比湖区域 土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)变化 CA-Markov模型 土地利用模拟 生态风险评价 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]