Determination of Scheduled Travel Time for a Fixed Transit Route Based on Multistate Model  

作　　者：Shukai Chen Daniel(Jian) Sun Rui Xue 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering,School of Naval Architecture,Ocean & Civil Engineering,Shanghai Jiao Tong University [2]Transportation Research Center,School of Naval Architecture,Ocean & Civil Engineering,Shanghai Jiao Tong University

出　　处：《Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology(New Series)》2016年第2期16-22,共7页哈尔滨工业大学学报（英文版）

基　　金：Sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.71101109);Key Project of Shanghai Soft Science Research Program(Grant No.15692105400);Humanities and Social Sciences Program of the Ministry of Education,China(Grant No.15YJCZH148)

摘　　要：In order to provide the guideline for bus drivers to adjust speed to minimize scheduled deviation,the method for setting bus scheduled travel time is proposed. Firstly,multistate model is introduced to fit historical travel time data and identify different service states. Based on the calibrated travel time distribution parameters,an optimization model is proposed,followed by a Monte Carlo( MC) simulation based genetic algorithm( GA)procedure to obtain the optimal scheduled time. A case study from a fixed bus route from Shenzhen is used to demonstrate the model applicability. The sensitivity analysis is conducted to study the effects of parameters setting on optimal slack time for each segment. The results show that multistate model fits travel time under peak hours better than Lognormal distribution,and the length of scheduled travel time basically reflects travel time reliability.In order to provide the guideline for bus drivers to adjust speed to minimize scheduled deviation,the method for setting bus scheduled travel time is proposed. Firstly,multistate model is introduced to fit historical travel time data and identify different service states. Based on the calibrated travel time distribution parameters,an optimization model is proposed,followed by a Monte Carlo( MC) simulation based genetic algorithm( GA)procedure to obtain the optimal scheduled time. A case study from a fixed bus route from Shenzhen is used to demonstrate the model applicability. The sensitivity analysis is conducted to study the effects of parameters setting on optimal slack time for each segment. The results show that multistate model fits travel time under peak hours better than Lognormal distribution,and the length of scheduled travel time basically reflects travel time reliability.

关 键 词：scheduled TRAVEL TIME multistate model TRAVEL TIME DISTRIBUTION GENETIC algorithm 

分 类 号：U492.2[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]