基于正交设计及EFDC模型的湖泊流域总量控制——以滇池流域为例  

Total emission control of water pollutant for the lake basin based on orthogonal experimental design and EFDC Model: A case study of Dianchi Basin

作　　者：杨澄宇[1] 代超[1] 伊璇[1] 陆文涛[1] 郭怀成[1] YANG Cheng-yu;DAI Chao;YI Xuan;LU Wen-tao;GUO Huai-cheng(College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学环境科学与工程学院,北京100871

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2016年第12期3696-3702,共7页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家水体污染控制与治理重大科技专项(2013ZX07102-06)

摘　　要：构建了基于正交设计-水质模拟-方案评价的污染物总量控制方案的方法体系,并应用于滇池流域.选择TN、TP作为总量控制指标,将滇池流域划分为6个子区单元,通过设计5水平(0%,5%,10%,15%,20%)6因素的正交试验表,得到25种不同削减方案;耦合EFDC模型模拟得到25种不同削减情景条件下湖泊水质的TN、TP浓度分布,计算各方案综合营养状态指数(TSI),筛选符合中度富营养化标准(60<TSI(Σ)≤70)的方案,引入数据包络分析(DEA)计算各方案的效率得分,得分最高的方案为最优削减方案.研究表明,滇池的叶绿素a平均浓度与TP平均浓度具有极强的相关性,最优方案下滇池流域6个子区TN、TP在原排放量的基础上,削减比例均为20%,15%,10%,5%,0%,20%.A systemic method was developed through integrating the orthogonal experimental design,water quality modeland evaluation technique.Such method can be used for identifying the optimal total emission control schemes for the LakeDianchi Basin.Firstly,TN and TP as the evaluating indicators were designed with5levels(i.e.,0%,5%,10%,15%and20%,respectively);meanwhile,the entire Basin was divided into6subareas.Accordingly,the orthogonal design table(6factors and5levels)was employed and then25reduction scenarios would be generated.Secondly,the TN,TP and Chl-aconcentration distribution of the Lake could be simulated by the EFDC Model under different reduction scenarios.Then,we could calculate the value of Trophic State Index(TSI),and select the eligible reduction scenarios if60<TSI(Σ)≤70.Atlast,the data envelopment analysis(DEA)was introduced to evaluate the efficiency score for the eligible reductionscenarios,and to identify the optimal reduction scheme according to the highest score.These results indicated that theoptimal reduction scheme would be:cut off20%,15%,10%,5%,0%,20%from the origin TN and TP emission in eachsubarea.

关 键 词：污染负荷削减 正交实验设计 EFDC模型 数据包络分析 滇池流域 

分 类 号：X524[环境科学与工程—环境工程]