新能源电动车销量预测模型的应用  

Research on forecast model of sales volume based on new energy electric vehicle

作　　者：石萍 黎俊辉 刘洪[1] SHI Yunping;LI Junhui;LIU Hong(School of Science,University of Science and Technology Liaoning,Anshan 114051,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁科技大学理学院,辽宁鞍山114051

出　　处：《辽宁科技大学学报》2016年第5期395-400,共6页Journal of University of Science and Technology Liaoning

摘　　要：随着新能源电动车(乘用车)的使用越来越普及,对其销售预测的研究尤为重要。首先采用指数平滑预测方法对其进行销量预测;考虑到新能源电动车销售量呈现季节性变化,将季节变动指数融入灰色预测中,给出了基于季节变动指数改进的灰色预测模型;为了进一步提高预测精度,引入IOWA算子,将指数平滑预测与改进的灰色预测相组合,给出了基于IOWA算子的组合预测模型;最后通过实例仿真验证了模型的可行性和有效性,为发展新能源汽车提供基础资料。With the use of new energy vehicles (passenger cars) becoming popular, it is particularly importantto study the sales forecast. First, the exponential smoothing forecasting method is used to forecast the sales volume.Taking into account of the seasonal changes of the new energy electric vehicle sales, the seasonal variationindex was integrated into the grey prediction to present grey forecasting model. In order to further improvethe prediction accuracy, exponential smoothing forecasting and improved grey prediction are combinedby introducing IOWA operator. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the model are verified by the simulationof a practical example. The use of the predict model provides the basic information for the development ofnew energy vehicles.

关 键 词：电动车销量 指数平滑 灰色预测 组合预测 

分 类 号：N945.24[自然科学总论—系统科学]