基于灵敏度分析和替代模型的地下水污染风险评价方法  

Groundwater contamination risk assessment method based on sensitivity analysis and surrogate model

作　　者：常振波 卢文喜[1,2] 辛欣[1,2] 顾文龙[1,2] 崔尚进 CHANG Zhen-bo;LU Wen-xi;XIN Xin;GU Wen-long;CUI Shang-jin(Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment Ministry of Education, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China;College of Environment and Resources, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学地下水与资源环境教育部重点实验室,吉林长春130012 [2]吉林大学环境与资源学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2017年第1期167-173,共7页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41372237);吉林大学研究生创新基金资助项目(2016207;2016100)

摘　　要：采用蒙特卡洛方法,借助随机模型进行地下水污染风险评价,模型中随机变量利用灵敏度分析的方法确定,使地下水风险评价结果更为可靠,并借助一个假想例子来说明评价过程.结果表明,模拟输出数据符合正态分布规律,对正态分布概率密度函数积分可以得到污染风险,井1、井2和井3的污染风险分别为0%、78.52%和100%;根据整个模拟区的污染风险分布图可以划分出具有不同污染风险程度的子区域,藉此能够定量评价模拟区不同子区域的污染风险程度.Stochastic model with Monte Carlo method was used to assess the risk of groundwater pollution.The randomvariables in the model were determined by the sensitivity analysis,which made the result of the groundwater riskassessment more reliable,and the evaluation process was illustrated by a hypothetical example.The results showed thatthe simulated output data was in accord with the normal distribution law,and normal probability density function of theintegrator was the risk of contamination.The pollution risks of well1,2and3were0%,78.52%and100%,respectively.Sub regions with different risk of pollution were divided according to the pollution risk distribution map of the wholesimulation area,so as to quantitatively evaluate the pollution risk of different sub area in the simulation area.

关 键 词：地下水污染风险评价 灵敏度分析 蒙特卡洛 替代模型 概率统计 

分 类 号：X703[环境科学与工程—环境工程]