2016年中国矿业市场变化分析与2017年展望  

Analysis on the Change of China's Mining Market in 2016 and Prospects for 2017

作　　者：余良晖[1,2] 马茁卉[1,2] 苏轶娜[1,2] 余韵[1,2] YU Lianghui;MA Zhuohui;SU Yina;YU Yun(Chinese Academy of Land and Resources Economics, Beijing 101149, China;Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Carrying Capacity Evaluation, Ministry of Land and Resources, Beijing 101149, China)

机构地区：[1]中国国土资源经济研究院,北京101149 [2]国土资源部资源环境承载力评价重点实验室,北京101149

出　　处：《中国国土资源经济》2017年第1期28-34,57,共8页Natural Resource Economics of China

基　　金：部门二级项目"基于市场动态监测的国土资源形势分析与战略实施评估"(121102000000150006);中国地质调查局地质调查工作项目(12120115057101)

摘　　要：2016年,我国矿业行业指数显示出明显而坚决的翘尾势态。资源供应结构优化,供给侧改革作用显现,主要矿产品进口呈增长态势,价格在相对底部基础上整体回升,资源税改革成效初步显现。后期风险:一是逆全球化思维,区域分化;二是预防高科技矿产行业的产能过剩和同质化竞争风险;三是全产业链、不同投资类型的固定资产投资的下行态势,对产品的稳定供应和行业转型的后期支撑影响。In 2016, the index of China's mining industry showed a clear and resolute warped-tail trend. The structure of resources supply had been optimized, the reform of supply side has shown good signs, the main mineral imports were on growing trend, the overall price rebound from the basis of bottom, and the initial results of resource tax reform had been positive. However, there’re still some risks: Firstly, there’s an inverse globalization and regional differentiation trend. Secondly, we should prevent the hightech mining industry overcapacity and homogenization of competition risk. Thirdly, the whole industry chain, and different types of investment in fixed asset investment show the downward trend, which will affect the stable supply of product and the further transition of the industry.

关 键 词：矿业形势 贸易 价格 投资 展望 2016年 2017年 

分 类 号：F407.1[经济管理—产业经济] F062.1