中国钼矿资源供需预测  

The Prediction of Molybdenum Mineral Demand and Supply in China

作　　者：张照志[1,2] 王贤伟[2,3] 张剑锋[2,3] 江光宇 范青东 ZHANG Zhao-zhi;WANG Xian-wei;ZHANG Jian-feng;JIANG Guang-yu;FAN Qing-dong(MLR Key Laboratory of Metallogeny and Mineral Resource Assessment, Institute of Mineral Resources,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100037;Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100037;China University of Geosciences(Beijing), Beijing 100083;China Environmental Culture Promotion Association,Beijing 100011)

机构地区：[1]中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所国土资源部成矿作用与资源评价重点实验室,北京100037 [2]中国地质科学院全球矿产资源战略研究中心,北京100037 [3]中国地质大学(北京),北京100083 [4]中国环境文化促进会,北京100011

出　　处：《地球学报》2017年第1期69-76,共8页Acta Geoscientica Sinica

基　　金：国家国际科技合作专项"矿产资源需求预测和可供性分析技术研究"项目(编号:2014DFG22170)资助~~

摘　　要：本文在对我国钼矿成矿地质条件、资源储量、开发利用现状、产业与市场进行分析的基础上,分析了我国钼矿资源的特点及产业发展趋势。利用矿产品部门消费法和回归分析法,对我国2020年、2025年和2030年钼矿资源性产品的需求量(金属量,下同)和产量(能)进行了预测。预测结果表明:2020年、2025年和2030年我国钼矿消费量分别为:8.26~8.3万吨、8.77~9.0万吨、9.22~9.5万吨;产量(能)分别为:12万吨、10万吨和9.5万吨。研究表明:我国钼矿资源储量大,以斑岩型矿床为主,品位低(0.056%),高品位(Mo≥0.12%)的保有资源储量占比不足1/5,单矿石可选性好;在一段时间内仍将维持供大于求的格局,钼精矿产能利用率持续降低。为此,本文提出通过实施严格控制钼矿开采总量、提高环保准入门槛,以及去产能化等对策建议,解决我国钼矿资源产业中存在的问题。本文研究结论对我国钼矿资源产业可持续发展战略制定等具有重要的参考价值。In this paper,the authors analyzed the characteristics and development trend of China’s molybdenumresources in the light of the geological conditions of molybdenum mineralization,resources and reserves,development and utilization status,industry,and market.Minerals sector consumption and regression analysiswere used to predict China’s2020,2025and2030demand for and supply of molybdenum resource products(output).Forecast results for China’s molybdenum consumptions in2020,2025,2030are8.26~8.3ten thousandtons,8.77~9.0ten thousand tons and9.22~9.5ten thousand tons respectively,and the outputs are12ten thousandtons,10ten thousand tons and9.5ten thousand tons respectively.Researches indicate considerable reserves ofmolybdenum ore resources in China,dominated by porphyry deposits characterized by lower grade(0.056%),with the high grade(Mo≥0.12%)reserves of the resources accounting for less than1/5;nevertheless,washabilityof single ore is good.The pattern of supply exceeding demand will remain for some time,and molybdenumconcentrate capacity utilization will continue to decrease.Therefore,through the implementation of strict controlof molybdenum mining and raising of environmental access threshold as well as the control of the productioncapacity and some other measures,the problems in China’s molybdenum mineral resources industry mightbe solved.The conclusions put forward by the authors have important reference value for the formulation of sustainable development strategy of China’s molybdenum resources industry.

关 键 词：中国 钼矿资源 供需形势 供需预测 

分 类 号：P618.65[天文地球—矿床学] F205[天文地球—地质学]