未来气候变暖对北运河通州段自净过程的影响  

The effects of global warming on purification processes of Tongzhou section of Beiyun river

作　　者：张质明[1,2] 王晓燕[2] 马文林[3] 张君枝[3] 潘润泽[3] 杨若子[4] ZHANG Zhi-ming;WANG Xiao-yan;MA Wen-lin;ZHANG Jun-zhi;PAN Run-ze;YANG Ruo-zi(Beijing Climate Change Response Research and Education Center, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 100044, China;College of Resource Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China;Beijing Municipal Climate Center, Beijing 100089, China)

机构地区：[1]北京建筑大学,北京应对气候变化和人才培养基地,北京100044 [2]首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院,北京100048 [3]北京建筑大学北京应对气候变化和人才培养基地,北京100044 [4]北京市气候中心,北京100089

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2017年第2期730-739,共10页China Environmental Science

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金资助项目(8154044);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41271495;51408022)

摘　　要：为了定量研究未来气候变化中气温的变化对城市河流自净能力的影响,以北运河通州段为例,利用CMIP5的RCP4.5与RCP8.5两种气候变化情景结果,结合WASP模型对水体中溶解氧、CBOD、硝态氮、氨氮4项指标进行了预测.结合模型各子模块的响应情况,分析了各项指标的内部迁移转化过程.结果表明:1.2011~2050年的时段里,随着时间变化,气候变化会使北运河通州段内大部分河段全年度的硝态氮以及4~12月份的氨氮浓度逐渐升高,而1~3月份的氨氮浓度逐渐降低;2.气候变化对水质的影响是各环节综合作用的结果.在河流水质变化表现不明显的情形下,其形成机理也可能发生显著变化;3北运河通州段在2011~2050年的期间里,水体自净过程中受到气候变暖影响的主要环节为浮游植物的生长、反硝化过程和氨氮的矿化作用.In order to quantify the effect of temperature changes occurred by climate change on self-purification capacityof urban river in the future,both RCP4.5and RCP8.5-the two scenarios of climate change which were mentioned inCMIP5,and the WASP module were applied to simulate and predict DO,CBOD,nitrate nitrogen and ammonia nitrogen inTongzhou section of Beiyun river.With the simulation result,the internal transformation processes of the above factors byresponsiveness of each sub-modules were analyzed.It showed that:firstly,up to2050,the concentration of nitratenitrogen in the all year round and the concentration of ammonia nitrogen in April-December would increase gradually,butthe concentration of ammonia nitrogen would decease in January-March of Tongzhou section of Beiyun river,which wascaused by climate change;secondly,the effect on water quality caused by climate change was a comprehensive result ofmultiple processes,in other words,even if the water quality had no obvious change,the process of its formationmechanism might be large;and thirdly,up to2050,the process of phytoplankton growth,denitrification process andmineralization of ammonia nitrogen of water self-purification would be affected heavily by climate change.

关 键 词：气候变暖 水体自净 北运河 气候模式 水质模型 

分 类 号：X522[环境科学与工程—环境工程]