不同云微物理方案对新疆冷锋暴雪的预报影响分析  

Influence of different cloud microphysical schemes on forecasts of a cold-font snowstorm in Xinjiang

作　　者：于晓晶[1,2] 于志翔[3] 唐永兰[4] 赵玲[1,2] YU Xiaojing;YU Zhixiang;TANG Yonglan;ZHAO Ling(Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002;Center for Central Asian Atmosphere Science Research, Urumqi 830002;Urumqi Meteorological Satellite Ground Station,NSMC,Urumqi 830011;Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, Institute of Heavy Rain,China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan 430205)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,乌鲁木齐830002 [2]中亚大气科学研究中心,乌鲁木齐830002 [3]国家卫星气象中心乌鲁木齐卫星地面站,乌鲁木齐830011 [4]中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室,武汉430205

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2017年第1期33-41,共9页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：中国沙漠气象科学研究基金课题(Sqj2013014);国家自然科学基金项目(41505025)

摘　　要：考虑到冰相云微物理过程对冷锋降雪的数值预报结果起重要作用,针对2014年4月22—24日新疆一次强寒潮引起的冷锋暴雪过程,分别采用WRFv3.5.1中尺度模式中Lin、WSM6、Thompson和WDM6四种云微物理方案进行数值模拟,探究不同云微物理方案对其预报结果的影响。从降水预报结果看,四种方案对中天山强降雪中心的预报能力明显优于伊犁河谷地区,Lin方案对中天山强降雪中心的雨强变化趋势、起止时间以及强降水落区的预报能力总体优于其他三种方案。从温湿特征预报结果来看,四种方案对降雪过程前后的温度和过程之后的露点温度预报效果均较好,但对过程前期800 h Pa以上的露点温度预报偏高,这可能由于模式预报的降雪时间较实况提前、预报降水量偏大引起;四种方案预报的潜热通量和感热通量的量值与再分析资料有一定差异,但对其变化趋势的预报与再分析资料较一致。从云微物理特征来看,不同方案预报的水凝物粒子总量有所差异,但均以冰相粒子为主,且其变化趋势与强降雪时段比较一致。不同方案之间水凝物粒子含量差异也较大,Lin方案中霰和雪粒子含量最多,WSM6和WDM6两种方案以雪和冰粒子最多,Thompson方案中几乎全部为雪粒子。The ice-phase cloud microphysical process plays an important role in the forecast of cold-font snow. To study the impact of microphysical schemes on forecasts, sensitivity tests are carried out using four cloud microphysical parameterization schemes (Lin, WSM6,Thompson and WDM6) employed in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for a typical cold-font snowstorm occurred in Xinjiang from 22 to 24 April 2014. For precipitation, the forecasts of heavy snow center in the middle Tianshan are significantly better than those in the Ili valley area, and the forecasts using the Lin scheme are the best among the four schemes. For temperature and dew point temperature,four schemes all performed well in forecasting temperature during the event and dew point temperature after the event, while over-predicting dew point temperature under 800 hPa before the event, which may be caused by the facts that the forecasting snow time was earlier and the amount of precipitation was larger than observations. In addition, the values of latent heat and sensible heat differ slightly depending on schemes while the evolutions are in quite accord with observations. From the microphysical characteristics, the evolutions of hydrometeors are considerably consistent with that of rainfall intensity, and ice-phase particles dominate. However, the amounts of hydrometeors have a large difference among the four microphysical schemes, such as graupel and snow particles are the majority in the Lin scheme, the snow and ice particles dominate in the WSM6 and WDM6 scheme, and almost all are snow particles in the Thompson scheme.

关 键 词：中尺度数值预报 云微物理方案 新疆 冷锋暴雪 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]